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- A multiscale air quality and health risk modelling system: design and application over a local traffic management case studyPublication . Silveira, Carlos; Ferreira, Joana; Miranda, Ana IsabelAir pollution is nowadays a serious public health problem worldwide, especially in urban areas, due to high population density and intense anthropogenic activity. This paper aims to present the development of a modelling tool suitable for simulating multiscale air quality and health impacts - the modair4health system, and its application to an urban case study. The modair4health system includes the online model WRF-Chem, which provides meteorological and air quality fields from regional to urban scales, and the computational fluid dynamics model VADIS, which uses the urban WRF-Chem outputs to simulate the flow and pollutant dispersion in urban built-up areas. A health module based on World Health Organization (WHO) methodologies was also integrated into the system to quantify physical and economic health impacts resulting from air quality changes. The system was applied over a local case study, which represents one of the busiest road traffic areas of the city of Coimbra in Portugal, to assess its operationality in estimating NO2 concentrations and health impacts, by testing two traffic management scenarios. This scenario analysis considered a 4-domain nesting approach, with the finer resolution (4 m) domain focusing on the local case study and on two simulation periods, for which short-term health impacts were estimated. Spatially, the air quality and health greatest benefits were simulated around roads, where higher emission reductions were estimated, but they were also strongly influenced by the urban structure, local weather and population affected. The modair4health system has revealed to be an important multiscale modelling tool for integrated air quality and health assessment, able to support decision makers by facilitating the choice of cost-effective air quality and health management strategies and decisions. Moreover, its user-friendly interface allows to quickly test other urban air pollution control policies and the easy adaptation and application to other case studies considering regional to local atmospheric influences.
- Particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in a rural background atmosphere of southwestern EuropePublication . Matos, João; Silveira, Carlos; Cerqueira, Mário; Matos J.Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of organic pollutants widely distributed in the atmosphere and well known for their carcinogenic and mutagenic properties. Over the last two decades, research about atmospheric PAHs has been focused in urban and industrial areas, while less attention has been given to rural areas. This study aims to contribute to filling this gap by analyzing the levels, sources and associated health risks of particulate PAHs in a rural coastal atmosphere of southwestern Europe (Portugal). A total of 132 PM10 aerosol samples were collected over a 3-year period, from 2014 to 2016, with a high-volume sampler and analyzed for 7 PAHs by high-performance liquid chromatography. The global average of the sum of the concentrations of PAHs (ΣPAHs) was 0.320 ± 0.597 ng/m3. Benzo[b]fluoranthene was the dominant congener in the majority of aerosol samples, with an average contribution of 25% to the ΣPAHs. A seasonal trend was repeatedly observed over the study period with higher concentrations of PAHs during the autumn and winter months. The HYSPLIT model was used to examine air mass transport pathways into the sampling site, revealing that changes in the frequency of continental air mass trajectories were a key factor explaining the seasonal variation of PAHs. Model runs also indicated that fast-moving air masses were more efficient at dispersing PAHs emitted in the surrounding region than slow-moving air masses with a similar origin (marine or continental). The average concentration of benzo[a]pyrene, a powerful human carcinogen, was found to be 0.044 ± 0.098 ng/m3, approximately two orders of magnitude lower than average values previously recorded in the most polluted European atmospheres. Diagnostic ratio analysis suggested that mobile and stationary combustion sources were equally contributing to the atmospheric load of PAHs. The estimated average lifetime lung cancer risk was below the health-based guideline level, indicating a low risk of lung cancer development associated with inhalation exposure to particle-phase PAHs.
- Technological innovation in the traditional olive orchard management: advances and opportunities to the Northeastern region of PortugalPublication . Silveira, Carlos; Almeida, Arlindo; Ribeiro, A.C.In Portugal, the olive orchard is the most representative agricultural crop and one of the most impactful on the national economy. Therefore, a production structure accompanying the technological advances in this field would be expected; however, such a structure has not yet been realized, especially within traditional systems. Thus, taking northeastern Portugal as a case study, where a great expression of traditional orchards is visible, the following aspects are addressed within this paper: the region’s biophysical framework, the olive orchard’s environmental and socio- economic importance and its current management practices and associated pressures. As a result of that assessment, which demonstrates a low level of sustainability for traditional olive orchards, mainly in terms of economic viability, the most effective and simple solution is to act appropriately on factors that interfere with the crop yield, namely, irrigation and fertilization issues. With that purpose, a multiscale precision oliviculture system is also presented that is being developed in order to support decision making in traditional olive orchard management, aiming to obtain economically efficient productions based on eco-friendly cultural practices. Throughout the entire process, it is essential to ensure stakeholder engagement, in particular, olive growers, so that they recognize the effectiveness of potential measures that may avoid the reconversion/abandonment of the traditional olive production system.
- Using Analytic Hierarchy Process to Assess Beekeeping Suitability in Portuguese Controlled Areas: A First ApproachPublication . Roque, Natália; Fernandez, Paulo; Silveira, Carlos; Vilas-Boas, Miguel; Anjos, OféliaSimple Summary Beekeeping is an activity that supports agriculture and wildlife on earth, so it is very important to provide accurate information that is able to help in increasing the profitability of beekeeping and valorize pollination services. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed to assess beekeeping potential using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The proposed tool will support decision making by selecting the best apiary locations to maximize honey production and, consequently, the risks of losing bee colonies will be reduced. The Suitability map (apiary aptitude map) allows for validating the best locations for apiaries (considering the spatial and floristic resources use), and the aptitude for installing new apiaries or moving existing ones. In this sense, the application of Multi-criteria GIS Analysis, in the context of beekeeping planning, is a useful tool for the Beekeepers Association to manage honeybee resources within the territory in order to maximize their profit, and for government agencies to implement promotional measures and policies to maximize food support needs and mitigate spared diseases.Abstract Beekeeping management is greatly influenced by spatial factors (e.g., land use/land cover, roads, or electrical energy networks), so GIS are a powerful tool to overlap and relate a variety of spatial data levels and, consequently, a very useful tool for beekeeping activity planning. This study was developed within the intervention area of three controlled zones managed by Portuguese Beekeepers Associations. The methodology, based on multi-criteria decision analysis, integrates several criteria, such as hydrographic networks, road networks, soil occupation, solar radiation, and electromagnetic radiation sources. These criteria were proposed and evaluated through online questionnaires carried out with beekeepers. Concerning the selected criteria and the respective geographical data, the most relevant were land use/land cover and water availability, with a significance of 44% and 24%, respectively. The beekeeping suitability map enabled us to evaluate the degree of compliance for the actual location of apiaries, with 60% of the apiaries being installed in high potential areas. In the context of beekeeping planning, the potential of the techniques applied seems to be an important tool for optimizing the location of apiaries and the profitability of beekeeping.
- Atlas Digital DOUROZONEPublication . Monteiro, Alexandra; Rocha, Alfredo; Viceto, Carolina; Ascenso, Ana; Gama, Carla; Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Silveira, Carlos; Ribeiro, A.C.; Castro, João Paulo; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Gonçalves, Luís JorgeUm dos objetivos do projeto DOUROZONE compreendeu a elaboração de um atlas digital para apresentação e divulgação dos seus principais resultados, recorrendo a uma plataforma on-line, de modo a uma melhor e mais eficaz disseminação de informação relativa à avaliação do risco de exposição ao ozono das vinhas da Região Demarcada do Douro, em clima presente e futuro. Este atlas digital – alojado em http://dourozone.web.ua.pt/atlas e com acesso direto através do site do projeto: http://dourozone.web.ua.pt - disponibiliza uma estrutura em árvore, com 3 opções possíveis de visualização, que permitem avaliar a situação do clima presente e o impacte de alterações climáticas (futuro de médio e de longo prazo)
- Sintese ConclusivaPublication . Miranda, Ana Isabel; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, A.C.; Silveira, Carlos; Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Ascenso, Ana; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.Este livro apresenta os principais resultados do projeto DOUROZONE, que teve como objetivo avaliar o efeito do ozono troposférico nas vinhas da Região Demarcada do Douro, em clima presente e clima futuro. Efetuaram-se simulações de clima e de ozono troposférico, com uma elevada resolução espaço-temporal. As simulações climáticas, para o clima histórico recente (1986-2005), futuro de médio prazo (2046-2065) e de longo prazo (2081-2100), indicam um aumento generalizado da temperatura máxima, média e mínima na RDD. A estas alterações de temperatura está associado o aumento de ondas de calor (em intensidade, duração e frequência) e a diminuição de ondas de frio (em duração e frequência). No que se refere a alterações de precipitação, prevê-se uma diminuição média anual e para o período do verão, mas no que se refere ao período do inverno a tendência é de aumento dos valores em praticamente toda a RDD. Note-se ainda a redução do número de dias consecutivos com precipitação e o aumento do número de dias consecutivos secos.
- Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indicesPublication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Silveira, Carlos; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, A.C.; Andrade, João Verdial; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Barreales, David; Neto, Jorge; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, Carlos; Miranda, Ana IsabelClimate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the winegrowing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing-season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21 C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis-Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low-resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent-past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing-season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35 C) and drought from pre-véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid- and long-term WRF-MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long-term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region.
- Assessing the risk of tropospheric ozone phytotoxic effect on Southern European Mediterranean environments: a review with emphasis on vineyardsPublication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Silveira, Carlos; Ascenso, Ana; Gama, Carla; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Ribeiro, A.C.; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Andrade, João Verdial; Barreales, David; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Carlos, CristinaTropospheric ozone in Southern Europe has an increasing tendency in association with a greater incidence of warm summers and heatwaves. As there is already much evidence of the negative effects that current ambient ozone has on vegetation, there is a need for consistent risk assessment methods. Ozone plant exposure-based parameters have been used extensively to support decision-making. However, these parameters have been also criticised, as they do not relate with the actual dose of ozone entering the plant. Moreover, in Mediterranean environments, they often overestimate the risk as thresholds are exceeded without corresponding evidence of damaging effects. To overcome these limitations, dose-based approaches were developed. These approaches have a stronger biological basis as they are based on estimates of the amount of ozone molecules that diffuse into the leaf cells through the stomata. However, they have also limitations, as detoxification processes or non-stomatal uptake are not often taken into consideration. This work presents a review regarding ambient ozone effects on vegetation and the indices used to assess phytotoxic risk in southern European Mediterranean plant communities and crops. Emphasis is given to the grapevine as three southern European countries (Spain, Italy and Portugal) are major wine producers concentrating more than 20% of the area under grapevines globally. These countries hold a long winemaking tradition associated to renowned denominations of origin (DOs). Therefore, there is concern regarding climate change as a potential threat to wine typicity in these areas, most of the work focusing on atmospheric variables, bioclimatic and climate change indices only. Results from the DOUROZONE project are presented with the aim to analyse the implications climate change can have in a significant Portuguese wine region such as the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) including ozone-related indices as a novelty among other more frequently used bioclimatic and climate change indices.
- How can a changing climate influence the productivity of traditional olive orchards? Regression analysis applied to a local case study in PortugalPublication . Silveira, Carlos; Almeida, Arlindo; Ribeiro, A.C.Nowadays, the climate is undoubtedly one of the main threats to the sustainability of olive orchards, especially in the case of rainfed traditional production systems. Local warming, droughts, and extreme weather events are some of the climatological factors responsible for environmental thresholds in relation to crops being exceeded. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of microclimatic variability on the productivity of traditional olive orchards in a municipality located in northeastern Portugal. For this purpose, official data on climate, expressed through agrobioclimatic indicators, and olive productivity for a 21-year historical period (2000–2020) were used to evaluate potential correlations. In addition, a comprehensive regression analysis involving the dataset and the following modeling scenarios was carried out to develop regression models and assess the resulting predictions: (a) Random Forest (RF) with selected features; (b) Ordinary Least- Squares (OLS) with selected features; (c) OLS with correlation features; and (d) OLS with all features. For the a and b scenarios, features were selected applying the Recursive Feature Elimination with Cross-Validation (RFECV) technique. The best statistical performance was achieved considering nonlinearity among variables (a scenario, R2 = 0.95); however, it was not possible to derive any model given the underlying methodology to this scenario. In linear regression applications, the best fit between model predictions and the real olive productivity was obtained when all the analyzed agro-bioclimatic indicators were included in the regression (d scenario, R2 = 0.85). When selecting only the most relevant indicators using RFECV and correlation techniques, moderate correlations for the b and c regression scenarios were obtained (R2 of 0.54 and 0.49, respectively). Based on the research findings, especially the regression models, their adaptability to other olive territories with similar agronomic and environmental characteristics is suggested for crop management and regulatory purposes.
- Health impact pathways related to air quality changes: testing two health risk methodologies over a local traffic case studyPublication . Silveira, Carlos; Ferreira, Joana; Miranda, Ana I.Air pollution causes damage and imposes risks on human health, especially in cities, where the pollutant load is a major concern, although the extent of these effects is still largely unknown. Thus, taking the busiest road traffic area in Portugal as a local case study (600 m × 600 m domain, 4 m2 spatial resolution), the objective of this work was to investigate two health risk methodologies (linear and nonlinear), which were applied for estimating short-term health impacts related to daily variations of high-resolution ambient nitrogen dioxide ( NO2) concentrations modelled for winter and summer periods. Both approaches are based on the same general equation and health input metrics, differing only in the relative risk calculation. Health outcomes, translated into the total number of cases and subsequent damage costs, were compared, and their associated uncertainties and challenges for health impact modelling were addressed. Overall, for the winter and summer periods, health outcomes considering the whole simulation domain were lower using the nonlinear methodology (less 27% and 28%, respectively). Spatially, these differences are more noticeable in locations with higher NO2 and population values, where the highest health estimates were obtained. When the daily NO2 exposure was less than 6 μg.m−3, a fact that occurred in 95% of the domain cells and in both periods, relatively small differences between approaches were found. Analysing the seasonality effect, total health impacts derived from the linear and nonlinear applications were greater in summer (around 18% in both approaches). This happens due to the magnitude and spatial variability of NO2, as the other health input metrics remained constant. This exploratory research in local scale health impact assessment (HIA) demonstrated that the use of refined input data could contribute to more accurate health estimates and that the nonlinear approach is probably the most suitable for characterising air pollution episodes, thus providing important support in HIA.