Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the winegrowing
regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands
with average growing-season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21 C. This study
focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for
climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine
bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves).
Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis-Interim and Max Planck Institute
Earth System low-resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration
Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed
with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including
the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods
(2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed
over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local
grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative
implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of
climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent-past and future climate
scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed.
Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing-season heat
accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days
(daily maximum temperature above 35 C) and drought from pre-véraison phenological
conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the
mid- and long-term WRF-MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to
warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for
quality wine production in the long-term future climate scenario. These results indicate
potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production
and quality in the region.
Description
Keywords
Agrometeorology Bioclimatic indices Climate change modelling Extreme climate indices Grapevine phenology Regional and mesoscale modelling Wine production
Citation
Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos; Silveira, Carlos; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, António; Andrade, João; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João; Barreales, David; Neto, Jorge; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, Carlos; Miranda, Ana (2019). Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 0899-8418. 39, p. 5741-5760