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Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices

2019Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorBlanco-Ward, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorMonteiro, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorLopes, Myriam
dc.contributor.authorBorrego, Carlos S.
dc.contributor.authorSilveira, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorViceto, Carolina
dc.contributor.authorRocha, Alfredo
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, A.C.
dc.contributor.authorAndrade, João Verdial
dc.contributor.authorFeliciano, Manuel
dc.contributor.authorCastro, João Paulo
dc.contributor.authorBarreales, David
dc.contributor.authorNeto, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorCarlos, Cristina
dc.contributor.authorPeixoto, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorMiranda, Ana Isabel
dc.date.accessioned2018-02-19T10:00:00Z
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-03T18:02:16Z
dc.date.available2018-01-19T10:00:00Z
dc.date.available2020-01-03T18:02:16Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractClimate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the winegrowing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing-season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21 C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis-Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low-resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent-past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing-season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35 C) and drought from pre-véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid- and long-term WRF-MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long-term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors wish to thank the DOUROZONE project (PTDC/AAG-MAA/3335/2014; POCI-01-0145-FEDER- 016778) for financial support through Project 3599 – Promoting the Scientific Production and the Technological Development, and Thematic Networks (3599-PPCDT) – and through FEDER, and the national funds from FCT-Science and Technology Portuguese Foundation for the doctoral grant of D. Blanco-Ward (SFRH/BD/139193/2018). Thanks are also due for the financial support to CESAM (UID/AMB/50017 - POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007638), to FCT/MEC through national funds, and the co-funding by FEDER within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement and Compete 2020.
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionen_EN
dc.identifier.citationBlanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos; Silveira, Carlos; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, António; Andrade, João; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João; Barreales, David; Neto, Jorge; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, Carlos; Miranda, Ana (2019). Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 0899-8418. 39, p. 5741-5760en_EN
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/joc.6185en_EN
dc.identifier.issn0899-8418
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/18754
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyesen_EN
dc.subjectAgrometeorologyen_EN
dc.subjectBioclimatic indicesen_EN
dc.subjectClimate change modellingen_EN
dc.subjectExtreme climate indicesen_EN
dc.subjectGrapevine phenologyen_EN
dc.subjectRegional and mesoscale modellingen_EN
dc.subjectWine productionen_EN
dc.titleClimate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indicesen_EN
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
person.familyNameSilveira
person.familyNameRibeiro
person.familyNameAndrade
person.familyNameFeliciano
person.familyNameCastro
person.familyNameBarreales
person.givenNameCarlos
person.givenNameAntónio C.
person.givenNameJoão Verdial
person.givenNameManuel
person.givenNameJoão Paulo
person.givenNameDavid
person.identifier.ciencia-id351A-FA79-885E
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person.identifier.ciencia-id8D19-DBCC-8EF5
person.identifier.ciencia-idFA16-8DE7-6968
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9424-174X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8280-9027
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-5809-413X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3147-4511
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-0647-8892
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8425-0167
person.identifier.ridX-1640-2018
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person.identifier.scopus-author-id57202136257
rcaap.rightsopenAccessen_EN
rcaap.typearticleen_EN
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