Browsing by Author "Carlos, Cristina"
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- Analysis of climate change indices in relation to wine production: a case study in the Douro region (Portugal)Publication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Silveira, Carlos; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, A.C.; Andrade, João Verdial; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Barreales, David; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, Carlos; Miranda, Ana IsabelClimate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine-growing regions of the world, in particular the Douro region, are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing season temperatures limited to 13–21◦C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change detection and for grape production with particular emphasis on extreme events (e.g. cold waves, storms, heat waves). Dynamical downscaling ofMPI-ESM-LR global data forced with RCP8.5 climatic scenario is performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046– 2065; 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events are superimposed over critical phenological phases of the vine (dormancy, bud burst, flowering, v´eraison, and maturity) in order to assess their positive or negative implications on wine production in the region. An assessment on the statistical significance of climatic indices, their differences between the recent-past and the future scenarios and the potential impact on wine production is performed. Preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties. These results will provide evidence for future strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.
- Assessing the risk of tropospheric ozone phytotoxic effect on Southern European Mediterranean environments: a review with emphasis on vineyardsPublication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Silveira, Carlos; Ascenso, Ana; Gama, Carla; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Ribeiro, A.C.; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Andrade, João Verdial; Barreales, David; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Carlos, CristinaTropospheric ozone in Southern Europe has an increasing tendency in association with a greater incidence of warm summers and heatwaves. As there is already much evidence of the negative effects that current ambient ozone has on vegetation, there is a need for consistent risk assessment methods. Ozone plant exposure-based parameters have been used extensively to support decision-making. However, these parameters have been also criticised, as they do not relate with the actual dose of ozone entering the plant. Moreover, in Mediterranean environments, they often overestimate the risk as thresholds are exceeded without corresponding evidence of damaging effects. To overcome these limitations, dose-based approaches were developed. These approaches have a stronger biological basis as they are based on estimates of the amount of ozone molecules that diffuse into the leaf cells through the stomata. However, they have also limitations, as detoxification processes or non-stomatal uptake are not often taken into consideration. This work presents a review regarding ambient ozone effects on vegetation and the indices used to assess phytotoxic risk in southern European Mediterranean plant communities and crops. Emphasis is given to the grapevine as three southern European countries (Spain, Italy and Portugal) are major wine producers concentrating more than 20% of the area under grapevines globally. These countries hold a long winemaking tradition associated to renowned denominations of origin (DOs). Therefore, there is concern regarding climate change as a potential threat to wine typicity in these areas, most of the work focusing on atmospheric variables, bioclimatic and climate change indices only. Results from the DOUROZONE project are presented with the aim to analyse the implications climate change can have in a significant Portuguese wine region such as the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) including ozone-related indices as a novelty among other more frequently used bioclimatic and climate change indices.
- Avaliação do risco de efeito fitotóxico do ozono troposférico em ambientes Mediterrânicos do sul de Europa: uma revisão com ênfase na cultura da vinhaPublication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Silveira, Carlos; Ascenso, Ana; Gama, Carla; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Ribeiro, A.C.; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Andrade, João Verdial; Barreales, David; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Carlos, CristinaExiste uma preocupação crescente com os possíveis efeitos das alterações climáticas na indústria vitivinícola em relação à produtividade da vinha e à qualidade do vinho. Um estudo de campo que envolveu medições de ozono superficial, medições meteorológicas e observações fenológicas da vinha foi realizado numa área de produção de vinhos de renome internacional, a Região Demarcada do Douro (RDD). A avaliação dos possíveis efeitos fitotóxicos sobre a qualidade e a produção do vinho foi estimada com base num índice cumulativo de exposição ao ozono (o AOT40) e num parâmetro de dose de ozono fitotóxica (o POD6). Os padrões espaciais desses parâmetros também foram calculados através da aplicação de um modelo químico de transporte atmosférico (CHIMERE) e um modelo de deposição seca de ozono (EMEP). Os principais resultados indicam que a exposição da vinha a níveis de ozono da magnitude dos registados pode causar perdas até 10% na produtividade, porém esta relação requer estudos adicionais para uma mais correta integração das condições ambientais específicas da RDD, especialmente no que diz respeito ao comportamento das castas cultivadas na região, nas metodologias de cálculo destes parâmetros.
- Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indicesPublication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Silveira, Carlos; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, A.C.; Andrade, João Verdial; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Barreales, David; Neto, Jorge; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, Carlos; Miranda, Ana IsabelClimate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the winegrowing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing-season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21 C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis-Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low-resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent-past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing-season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35 C) and drought from pre-véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid- and long-term WRF-MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long-term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region.
- Climate change potential effects on grapevine bioclimatic indices: a case study for the Portuguese Demarcated Douro Region (Portugal)Publication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Ribeiro, A.C.; Barreales, David; Castro, João Paulo; Andrade, João Verdial; Feliciano, Manuel; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Carlos, CristinaIn this work bioclimatic parameters and indices relevant to the grapevine are estimated for the years 2000 (past-recent), 2049 (medium-term future) and 2097 (long-term future), based on high resolution (1 km x 1 km) MPI-WRF RCP 8.5 climate simulations. The selected parameters and indices are mean temperature during the grapevine period (April to October), cumulative rainfall during the grapevine period, Winker index (IW), Huglin heliothermic index (IH), night cold index (IF) and dryness index (IS). In general, a significant increase in mean temperature during the grapevine period is observed, together with a significant decrease in precipitation. The present IW is associated with the production of high quality wines; the higher values predicted for the future represent intensive production of wines of intermediate quality. The IH show the passage of a growing region of the vine considered as hot-temperate to a warm category of higher helio-thermicity. At present, IF indicates very cool conditions (associated with quality wines), while in the future there is a tendency for temperate nights. Finally, IS indicates an increase in water stress considered already high in the present climate. An assessment on the statistical significance of climatic indices, their differences between the historical and the future scenarios and the potential impact on wine production is performed. Preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties. These results will provide evidence for future strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.
- Climate change potential effects on grapevine bioclimatic indices: a case study for the Portuguese demarcated Douro Region (Portugal)Publication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Ribeiro, A.C.; Barreales, David; Castro, João Paulo; Andrade, João Verdial; Feliciano, Manuel; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Carlos, Cristina; Silveira, Carlos; Miranda, Ana IsabelIn this work, bioclimatic parameters and indices relevant to the grapevine are estimated for the years 2000 (recent-pat), 2049 (medium-term future) and 2097 (long-term future), based on very high resolution (1 km × 1 km) MPI-WRF RCP8.5 climate simulations. The selected parameters and indices are the mean temperature during the grapevine growing season period (April to October, Tgs), the cumulative rainfall during the grapevine growing season period (Pgs), the Winkler index (WI), the Huglin heliothermic index (HI), the night cold index (CI) and the dryness index (DI). In general, a significant increase in mean temperature during the grapevine growing season period is observed, together with a significant decrease in precipitation. The recent-past WI is associated with the production of high-quality wines; the higher values predicted for the future represent intensive production of wines of intermediate quality. The HI shows the passage of a grapevine growing region considered as temperate-warm to a warm category of higher helio-thermicity. The recent-past CI indicates very cool conditions (associated with quality wines), while in the future there is a tendency for temperate or warmer nights. Finally, DI indicates an increase in water stress considered already high under the recent-past climate conditions. These results point to an increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties, providing evidence to support strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.
- Confusão sexual contra a traça-da-uva, Lobesia botrana, na região demarcada do Douro usando dois modelos de difusores de feromona: ISONET-LTT BIO® E ISONET-LTT®Publication . Seixas, Maria; Carlos, Cristina; Gonçalves, Maria de Fátima; Ferreira, Ana; Salvação, Juliana; Oliveira, José Carlos; Torres, Laura; Oliveira, Paula SeixasA confusão sexual é uma técnica inovadora de proteção biotécnica contra a traça-da-uva, Lobesia botrana, considerada praga-chave da vinha na Região Demarcada do Douro (RDD). O difusor ISONET-LTT®, desenvolvido pela Shin-Etsu Chemical Co, mostrou, em trabalhos recentes, ser eficaz na proteção da vinha contra L. botrana. Porém, a utilização repetida de difusores feitos à base de polietileno, gera um problema de natureza ambiental, pela acumulação de plástico na vinha. Recentemente, a mesma empresa desenvolveu um novo difusor feito com materiais biodegradáveis, o ISONET-LTT BIO®, semelhante aos tradicionais. No presente estudo, que decorreu durante 2020, pretendeu-se avaliar a eficácia destes dois modelos de difusores de feromona na proteção da vinha contra a traça-da-uva na RDD. Adicionalmente, foi também avaliado o efeito da altitude na evolução da quantidade de feromona libertada por cada modelo. De forma geral, os dois difusores permitiram uma redução da intensidade de ataque de L. botrana, nas três gerações, com exceção de algumas parcelas durante o terceiro voo e terceira geração. A evolução da quantidade de feromona libertada pelos difusores estudados prolongou-se até ao início de agosto. A avaliação da quantidade de feromona emitida, em miligramas por dia por hectare, permitiu identificar diferenças de perdas a cotas diferentes, com maior libertação nas cotas mais baixas. A aplicação do difusor biodegradável foi eficaz na proteção contra a traça-da-uva, podendo constituir uma alternativa viável para a redução de resíduos de plástico no ecossistema vitícola.
- European grapevine moth and vitis vinifera l. phenology in the Douro Region: (A)synchrony and climate scenariosPublication . Reis, Samuel; Martins, Joana; Gonçalves, Maria de Fátima; Carlos, Cristina; Santos, João A.The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana; Denis and Schiffermüller, 1775) is considered a key pest for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the Douro Region, Portugal. The phenology of both the grapevine and the pest has changed in the last decades due to the increase in temperature. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on the (a)synchrony of both species. The results show that the phenological stages (budburst, flowering and veraison) undergo an advancement throughout the region (at an ~1 km resolution) under a climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP8.5) for the period 2051–2080, with respect to the historic period (1989–2015). For cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca, the budburst advances up to 14 days, whereas for flowering and veraison the advancements are up to 10 days (mainly at low elevations along the Douro River). For the phenology of Lobesia botrana, earliness was also verified in the three flights (consequently there may be more generations per year), covering the entire region. Furthermore, the third flight advances further compared to the others. For both varieties, the interaction between the third flight (beginning and peak) and the veraison date is the most relevant modification under the future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2051–2080). The aforementioned outcomes from the phenology models help to better understand the possible shifts of both trophic levels in the region under future climate, giving insights into their future interactions.
- Grapevine bioclimatic indices in relation to climate change: a case study in the Portuguese Douro Demarcated RegionPublication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Silveira, Carlos; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, A.C.; Andrade, João Verdial; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Barreales, David; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, CarlosClimate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine-growing regions of the world, in particular the Douro region, are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing season temperatures limited to 13-21ºC. This study focuses on the temporal variability of three grapevine bioclimatic indices, which are commonly used as part of the Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC) to classify the climate of wine producing regions worldwide. Dynamical downscaling of MPI-ESM-LR global data forced with RCP8.5 climatic scenario is performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986-2005) and future periods (2046-2065; 2081-2100). Results indicate significant shifts towards warmer and dryer conditions during the growing season and higher night temperatures during the grape ripening period. An assessment on the statistical significance of the differences between the recent-past and the future scenarios and the potential impact on wine production in the study area is performed. These results will provide evidence for future strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.
- Luta biológica contra o aranhiço vermelho, Panonychus ulmi (Koch) em macieira.Publication . Espiñha, Isabel; Carlos, Cristina; Pereira, J.A.o reconhecimento das insuficiências e inconvenientes da luta química na protecção da macieira contra o aranhiço vermelho tem incentivado o desenvolvimento de estratégias nas quais se procura reduzir ao mínimo possível, ou mesmo omitir, o emprego destes produtos. Fundamentalmente tal objectivo é concretizado através da valorização da fauna auxiliar indígena, em particular dos ácaros fitoseídeos. Nos casos em que as populações destes auxiliares se revelem insuficientes para limitar a praga, encara-se cada vez com mais interesse a possibilidade do seu enriquecimento por introduções artificiais.