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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana; Denis and Schiffermüller, 1775) is considered
a key pest for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) in the Douro Region, Portugal. The phenology of both the
grapevine and the pest has changed in the last decades due to the increase in temperature. Here, we
assess the potential impact of climate change on the (a)synchrony of both species. The results show
that the phenological stages (budburst, flowering and veraison) undergo an advancement throughout
the region (at an ~1 km resolution) under a climate change scenario (Representative Concentration
Pathways, RCP8.5) for the period 2051–2080, with respect to the historic period (1989–2015). For cv.
Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca, the budburst advances up to 14 days, whereas for flowering and
veraison the advancements are up to 10 days (mainly at low elevations along the Douro River). For
the phenology of Lobesia botrana, earliness was also verified in the three flights (consequently there
may be more generations per year), covering the entire region. Furthermore, the third flight advances
further compared to the others. For both varieties, the interaction between the third flight (beginning
and peak) and the veraison date is the most relevant modification under the future climate change
scenario (RCP8.5, 2051–2080). The aforementioned outcomes from the phenology models help to
better understand the possible shifts of both trophic levels in the region under future climate, giving
insights into their future interactions.
Description
Keywords
Lobesia botrana Grapevine Varieties Synchrony Climate scenario Douro Demarcated Region Phenology models Simulations Spatial-temporal map
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Reis, Samuel; Martins, Joana; Gonçalves, Fátima; Carlos, Cristina; Santos, João A. (2021). European grapevine moth and vitis vinifera l. phenology in the Douro Region: (A)synchrony and climate scenarios. Agronomy. ISSN 2073-4395. 12:1, p. 1-18