Browsing by Author "Jakovljevic, Mihajlo"
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- Analysis and forecasting incidence, intensive care unit admissions, and projected mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: predictions for 4 weeks aheadPublication . Carvalho, Kathleen; Vicente, João Paulo; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Teixeira, João PauloThe use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were two proposed methodologies in making predictions 28 days ahead for the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. A case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel was also considered. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries’ size and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized (with at least one dose of the vaccine). As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology, targeting other possibilities of use for the method proposed. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1-to-28-day ahead forecast, which is lower than 30 cases, 0.6 deaths, and 2.5 ICU patients per million people.
- Comparison of the healthcare system of Chile and Brazil: strengths, inefficiencies, and expendituresPublication . Cerda, Arcadio A.; García, Leidy Y.; Rivera-Arroyo, Jennifer; Riquelme, Andrés; Teixeira, João Paulo; Jakovljevic, MihajloBackground: Governments in Latin America are constantly facing the problem of managing scarce resources to satisfy alternative needs, such as housing, education, food, and healthcare security. Those needs, combined with increasing crime levels, require financial resources to be solved. Objective: The objective of this review was to characterizar the health system and health expenditure of a large country (Brazil) and a small country (Chile) and identify some of the challenges these two countries face in improving the health services of their population. Methods: A literature review was conducted by searching journals, databases, and other electronic resources to identify articles and research publications describing health systems in Brazil and Chile. Results: The review showed that the economic restriction and the economic cycle have an impact on the funding of the public health system. This result was true for the Brazilian health system after 2016, despite the change to a unique health system one decade earlier. In the case of Chile, there are different positions about which one is the best health system: a dual public and private or just public one. As a result, a referendum on September 4, 2022, of a new constitution, which incorporated a unique health system, was rejected. At the same time, the Government ended the copayment in the public health system in September 2022, excluding illnesses referred to the private sector. Another issue detected was the fragility of the public and private sector coverage due to the lack of funding. Conclusions: The health care system in Chile and Brazil has improved in the last decades. However, the public healthcare systems still need additional funding and efficiency improvement to respond to the growing health requirements needed from the population. © 2022, The Author(s).
- Editorial: health financing and spending in low- and middle-income countriesPublication . Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Çalışkan, Zafer; Fernandes, Paula Odete; Mouselli, Sulaiman; Otim, Michael EkubuThe World Bank has introduced the Atlas method to determine in an econometrically valid way borderline thresholds for classifications of all national economies into low, middle, and high-income categories in an objective and predictable manner. Although this approach may be challenged to some extent, it has long served well in observation and predictions of long-term trends in GDP growth and national health expenditures (1–3). The contribution of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) share in total health expenditures as observed through the (4) Global Health Expenditure criteria has almost doubled in terms of purchase power parity (PPP) basis from only 20% of the global share in 1995 up to almost 40% in 2013 (5, 6). These fiscal flows have been well-documented via WHO’s National Health Accounts database. This lengthy and rocky road forward for the LMICs contains many difficulties. A few core challenges include socioeconomic inequalities in medical care access and affordability, large out-of-pocket expenses, and vulnerabilities against catastrophic household expenditures. These challenges remain matters of grave concern in many LMICs (7). Broad trends give far greater grounds for optimism, however, since networks of rural and suburban health care facilities are growing and strengthening. Preventive lifestyle interventions, provision of essential medicines, and spreading of cost-effective basic medical technologies, designated in WHO policy as “best buys” interventions, all contributed to exceptionally improved early childhood survival and extended life expectancy. Current circumstances in most LMICs are characterized by aging populations, rapid urbanization, and increased citizen expectations in terms of health insurance coverage. Prescription drugs consumption is still dominated by generic medicines, with brand name originals gradually taking root. Hospital sectors are state or publicly owned in most former and modern day centrally-planned socialist economies. By contrast, in some regions like the Middle East and North African (MENA) Arabic nations, Latin America, and free-market Far East Asian economies, hospital property structure is predominantly privately owned (1).
- Real GDP growth rates and healthcare spending – comparison between the G7 and the EM7 countriesPublication . Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Timofeyev, Yuriy; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Fernandes, Paula Odete; Teixeira, João Paulo; Rancic, Nemanja; Reshetnikov, VladimirBackground: Accelerated globalisation has substantially contributed to the rise of emerging markets worldwide. The G7 and Emerging Markets Seven (EM7) behaved in significantly different macroeconomic ways before, during, and after the 2008 Global Crisis. Average real GDP growth rates remained substantially higher among the EM7, while unemployment rates changed their patterns after the crisis. Since 2017, however, approximately one half of the worldwide economic growth is attributable to the EM7, and only a quarter to the G7. This paper aims to analyse the association between the health spending and real GDP growth in the G7 and the EM7 countries. Results: In terms of GDP growth, the EM7 exhibited a higher degree of resilience during the 2008 crisis, compared to the G7. Unemployment in the G7 nations was rising significantly, compared to pre-recession levels, but, in the EM7, it remained traditionally high. In the G7, the austerity (measured as a percentage of GDP) significantly decreased the public health expenditure, even more so than in the EM7. Out-of-pocket health expenditure grew at a far more concerning pace in the EM7 compared to the G7 during the crisis, exposing the vulnerability of households living close to the poverty line. Regression analysis demonstrated that, in the G7, real GDP growth had a positive impact on out-of-pocket expenditure, measured as a percentage of current health expenditure, expressed as a percentage of GDP (CHE). In the EM7, it negatively affected CHE, CHE per capita, and out-of-pocket expenditure per capita. Conclusion: The EM7 countries demonstrated stronger endurance, withstanding the consequences of the crisis as compared to the G7 economies. Evidence of this was most visible in real growth and unemployment rates, before, during and after the crisis. It influenced health spending patterns in both groups, although they tended to diverge instead of converge in several important areas.
- Underlying differences in health spending within the world health organisation europe region - comparing EU15, EU Post-2004, CIS, EU candidate, and CARINFONET countriesPublication . Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Fernandes, Paula Odete; Teixeira, João Paulo; Rancic, Nemanja; Timofeyev, Yuriy; Reshetnikov, VladimirThis study examined the differences in health spending within the World Health Organization (WHO) Europe region by comparing the EU15, the EU post-2004, CIS, EU Candidate and CARINFONET countries. The WHO European Region (53 countries) has been divided into the following sub-groups: EU15, EU post-2004, CIS, EU Candidate countries and CARINFONET countries. The study period, based on the availability of WHO Global Health expenditure data, was 1995 to 2014. EU15 countries have exhibited the strongest growth in total health spending both in nominal and purchasing power parity terms. The dynamics of CIS members' private sector expenditure growth as a percentage of GDP change has exceeded that of other groups. Private sector expenditure on health as a percentage of total government expenditure, has steadily the highest percentage point share among CARINFONET countries. Furthermore, private households' out-of-pocket payments on health as a percentage of total health expenditure, has been dominated by Central Asian republics for most of the period, although, for the period 2010 to 2014, the latter have tended to converge with those of CIS countries. Western EU15 nations have shown a serious growth of health expenditure far exceeding their pace of real economic growth in the long run. There is concerning growth of private health spending among the CIS and CARINFONET nations. It reflects growing citizen vulnerability in terms of questionable affordability of healthcare. Health care investment capability has grown most substantially in the Russian Federation, Turkey and Poland being the classical examples of emerging markets.
- Universal health coverage: the long road ahead for low- and middle-income regionsPublication . Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Izham, Mohamed; Ibrahim, Mohamed; Teixeira, João PauloUniversal health coverage (UHC) is one of the core Millennium Development Goals adopted in the United Nations and the World Health Organization’s (WHO) strategic agenda. Surprisingly, even as we approach the year 2021, achieving UHC to a reasonable extent and protecting the most vulnerable segments of native populations remains a challenge even for the richest of nations (1). In recent years, traditional world health sector establishments have assumed that most of the market demand for drugs, medical technologies, and services took place in rich Western societies, including Japan (2). Most of the market supply in terms of innovation and technology production led by multinational businesses, such as Big Pharma companies, also took place in these nations (3, 4). Back in 2000, WHO estimates on national health systems worldwide ranked the top ten systems, seven of which were European and only three of which were Asian (Japan, Oman, and Singapore) (5). Due to urbanization on a mega scale, however, growth in living standards and affordability of medical care and medicines can be seen throughout rapidly developing regions (primarily the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and Southern and Eastern Asia) (6). In November 2018, a public announcement by the Chancellor of Germany, the largest EU economy, emphasized that most of the essential innovation in this area is now taking place either in North America or Far East Asia, far surpassing the European Union. All of these changes reflect heavily on the market demand for drugs, medicinal devices, services, and long-term care worldwide (7). Until the early 2000s, the global pharmaceutical market was still heavily dominated by the USA, representing approximately a 4% share of the global population and almost 50% consumption of brand-name medicines expressed in value-based turn over. Japan was ranked second in the same terms, preserving this position for a very long time. The contemporary pace of pharmaceutical innovation remains to be dominated by Western, Japanese, and Israeli-based multinationals (8). On the other hand, demand is exploding among emerging economies and all major investors are aware that the lion’s share of growth opportunities as we approach 2050 will take place in these emerging economies, outside of mature high-income Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member nations (10). Emerging markets, such as the BRIC nations or EM7 (BRIC + Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey), remain the core focus of foreign capital investment in long-term strategies and forecasts (9).