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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Durante os últimos anos, a economia de Angola tem passado por momentos de instabilidades devido à variação das commodity. Alguns dos principais indicadores macroeconómico como PIB, taxa de câmbio, investimentos e reservas internacionais são severamente afetados pelo facto de ser um país dependente da exportação de petróleo. De referir que a taxa de câmbio e o investimento (quer público quer privado) são indicadores essenciais para o crescimento da economia. Assim, para alcançar o objetivo de perceber se existe uma relação entre a taxa de câmbio e o investimento público e privado em Angola, numa perspetiva da gestão do investimento público, foi usada uma base de dados disponibilizada publicamente no portal do Banco Mundial “World Bank Data” e pelo Instituto Nacional de Estatística de Angola, para os anos económicos de 2008 a 2019. Com os dados recolhidos foi possível a aplicação de modelos econométricos de regressão linear estocástico, para explicar como as variações registadas na taxa de câmbio afetam algumas das variáveis macroeconómicas mais relevantes na economia angolana, em particular o investimento público realizado na economia. Os resultados do estudo, dos modelos desenvolvidos permitem concluir que existe uma relação entre a taxa de câmbio e o investimento público e privado em Angola. Se a depreciação da moeda afeta a despesa pública (quer geral quer total) de forma negativa, também afeta negativamente o investimento líquido em ativos não financeiros (investimento público) e o IDE.
Apresenta, no entanto, um efeito residual positivo no ambiente empresarial com o aumento do registo de empresas na economia.
During the last few years, Angola's economy has experienced moments of instability due to the variation in commodities. Some of the leading macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, exchange rate, investments and international reserves are severely affected by the fact that Angola is dependent on oil exports. It should be noted that the exchange rate and investment (both public and private) are essential indicators of the economy's growth. Thus, to achieve the objective of understanding whether there is a relationship between the exchange rate and public and private investment in Angola, from the perspective of public investment management, was used a database made publicly available on the World Bank portal "World Bank Data" and by the National Institute of Statistics of Angola, for the economic years of 2008 to 2019. With the data collected, it was possible to apply stochastic linear regression econometric models to explain how exchange rate variations affect some of the most relevant macroeconomic variables in the Angolan economy, particularly public investment in the economy. The results of the study allow concluding that there is a relationship between the exchange rate and public and private investment in Angola. If the depreciation of the currency affects public expenditure (both general and total) negatively, it also negatively affects net investment in non-financial assets (public investment) and FDI. It does, however, have a positive residual effect on the business environment with an increase in company registration in the economy.
During the last few years, Angola's economy has experienced moments of instability due to the variation in commodities. Some of the leading macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, exchange rate, investments and international reserves are severely affected by the fact that Angola is dependent on oil exports. It should be noted that the exchange rate and investment (both public and private) are essential indicators of the economy's growth. Thus, to achieve the objective of understanding whether there is a relationship between the exchange rate and public and private investment in Angola, from the perspective of public investment management, was used a database made publicly available on the World Bank portal "World Bank Data" and by the National Institute of Statistics of Angola, for the economic years of 2008 to 2019. With the data collected, it was possible to apply stochastic linear regression econometric models to explain how exchange rate variations affect some of the most relevant macroeconomic variables in the Angolan economy, particularly public investment in the economy. The results of the study allow concluding that there is a relationship between the exchange rate and public and private investment in Angola. If the depreciation of the currency affects public expenditure (both general and total) negatively, it also negatively affects net investment in non-financial assets (public investment) and FDI. It does, however, have a positive residual effect on the business environment with an increase in company registration in the economy.
Description
Mestrado em ESTG-IPB/APNOR
Keywords
Taxa de câmbio Crescimento económico Gestão do investimento público Angola Modelo OLS