The effects of climate change on the potential distribution of a frugivorous fish in the Amazon basin

We assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of Piaractus brachypomus Cuvier (1818), a species of economic interest in the Amazon basin, using ecological niche models. We employed a set of five algorithms under the ensemble forecasting approach to predict the geographic distribution of the species in the present and in the future considering different carbon emission scenarios. The projections indicate that a large portion of the Amazon basin presents suitable areas for P. brachypomus, with moderate reduction of these areas in the near future. By 2090, under the pessimistic scenario, losses intensify, and the most drastic contractions are projected for the Branco, Japurá, Mamoré, Negro, and Purus sub-basins, while by the end of the century, suitable areas are predicted to occur mainly in rivers of the southwestern and central Amazon regions. The gain of suitable areas was smaller compared to the proportion of stable areas and losses. These results provide valuable information for the development of effective conservation plans with the intent of ensuring the ecological and economic benefits that P. brachypomus provides in the Amazon basin.

Keywords

Ecological niche modeling Conservation strategies Potential distribution Piaractus brachypomus

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10198/35249

Citation

De Oliveira, Ana Carolina Farias; Spirlandelli, Felipe Pacheco; Seripieri, Vitor Henrique Mistro; Lino, Andre Luiz Ramos; Azevedo, João Carlos; Yofukuji, Karia Yasuko; Souza, Beatriz Cristina de Paula; Pontara, Vanessa; Bueno, Marcelo, Leandro; Esser, Luiz Fernando; Da Graça, Weferson Junio; Ferreira, Jose Hilario Delconte; Ré Reginaldo; Baily, Dayani; Batista-Silva, Valeria Flavia (2025). The effects of climate change on the potential distribution of a frugivorous fish in the Amazon basin. Hydrobiologia. ISSN 1573-5117. 350:6 p. 1-17