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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
A compreensão da relação entre o setor do turismo e o crescimento económico tem suscitado considerável interesse para a condução de investigação científica. Este setor impulsiona as economias locais e nacionais, contribui para o aumento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e cria oportunidades de emprego, tanto direta quanto indiretamente, enquanto aumenta a produtividade dos países. Estima-se que em 2023, o consumo turístico representou 12,7% do PIB nacional português, correspondendo a 33,8 mil milhões de euros. Neste contexto, este estudo tem como objetivo compreender a relação causal entre o turismo e o crescimento económico em Portugal. Para o efeito, realizou-se uma análise de causalidade através da metodologia de Engle-Granger complementada com a elaboração de um modelo de correção de erros, utilizando dados trimestrais do período de 2006 a 2023. Este período abrange duas importantes crises com impactos
económicos: a crise financeira que teve início em 2008 e a recente crise pandémica de COVID-19.
Os resultados deste estudo permitiram compreender que a relação entre estas variáveis não é linear
e varia consoante as dinâmicas dos fluxos turísticos, já que nem sempre um crescimento nesses fluxos reflete um aumento nos valores do PIB. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, embora o aumento do turismo tenha um efeito positivo nos valores do PIB quando se avalia a relação de longo prazo, os resultados indicam um impacto negativo no PIB no curto prazo o que reflete a relevância da sazonalidade da atividade no país. Os resultados são relevantes para suportar a importância de políticas de desenvolvimento sustentável no setor do turismo, garantindo que o crescimento do mesmo não comprometa outros setores da economia ou o bem-estar da população.
Understanding the relationship between the tourism sector and economic growth has attracted considerable interest in the development of scientific research. This sector drives local and national economies, contributes to the increase of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and creates both direct and indirect employment opportunities while also enhancing countries' productivity. In 2023, total tourist consumption contributed €33.8 billion to GDP, which equates to 12.7%. This dissertation aimed to understand the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in Portugal. To achieve this, a causality analysis was carried out using the Engle-Granger methodology, complemented by the development of an error correction model, based on quarterly data from 2006 to 2023. This period includes two significant crises with economic impacts: the financial crisis that began in 2008 and the recent COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The findings of this study suggest that the relationship between these variables is not linear and varies according to the dynamics of tourist flows, as an increase in these flows does not always translate into higher GDP values. The findings demonstrate that, although tourism growth has a positive effect on GDP in the long run, the results indicate a negative impact on GDP in the short term, which reflects the importance of the seasonality of the activity in the country. These results are important to support the relevance of sustainable development policies in the tourism sector, ensuring that its growth does not compromise other sectors of the economy or the well-being of the population.
Understanding the relationship between the tourism sector and economic growth has attracted considerable interest in the development of scientific research. This sector drives local and national economies, contributes to the increase of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and creates both direct and indirect employment opportunities while also enhancing countries' productivity. In 2023, total tourist consumption contributed €33.8 billion to GDP, which equates to 12.7%. This dissertation aimed to understand the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in Portugal. To achieve this, a causality analysis was carried out using the Engle-Granger methodology, complemented by the development of an error correction model, based on quarterly data from 2006 to 2023. This period includes two significant crises with economic impacts: the financial crisis that began in 2008 and the recent COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The findings of this study suggest that the relationship between these variables is not linear and varies according to the dynamics of tourist flows, as an increase in these flows does not always translate into higher GDP values. The findings demonstrate that, although tourism growth has a positive effect on GDP in the long run, the results indicate a negative impact on GDP in the short term, which reflects the importance of the seasonality of the activity in the country. These results are important to support the relevance of sustainable development policies in the tourism sector, ensuring that its growth does not compromise other sectors of the economy or the well-being of the population.
Description
Mestrado em IPB-ESTG e ASSOCIAÇÃO DE POLITÉCNICOS DO NORTE (APNOR): Instituto Politécnico do Cávado e do Ave, P. Porto, Instituto Politécnico de Viana do Castelo
Keywords
Turismo Crescimento económico Períodos de crise Causalidade de Engle- Grange Políticas de turismo