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Abstract(s)
O endividamento dos Municípios portugueses tem sido uma preocupação constante ao longo dos anos devido à grande contribuição para a divida pública nacional. O Regime Financeiro das Autarquias Locais e das Entidades Intermunicipais introduziu diversas alterações legislativas com o objetivo de promover a redução do endividamento Municipal. Dada a importância de conhecer os motivos para a existência de tão elevado endividamento, o objetivo desta investigação é identificar os fatores que impulsionam o endividamento bem como o sobre-endividamento. Em particular, procura-se perceber o impacto da transparência Municipal na evolução da dívida Municipal. Com base na recolha de dados para os 308 Municípios portugueses, num período de análise de 8 anos com início em 2012 até 2019, relativos a fatores de índole económico-financeiros, político-ideológicos e institucionais é utilizada a metodologia quantitativa, nomeadamente o modelo dos mínimos quadrados para dados em painel para conhecer os principais fatores determinantes do endividamento. De seguida, e tendo em conta a existência de diversos Municípios que ultrapassam o limite da divida total definida pela administração central, são utilizados modelos de regressão logística (Logit) para perceber que fatores mais contribuem para explicar uma maior probabilidade de sobre-endividamento nos Municípios. Os resultados permitiram evidenciar que os Municípios com maior independência financeira e governados por maioria não têm tanta probabilidade de se sobre endividarem, bem como os Municípios com um nível de transparência Municipal reduzido têm maior probabilidade de apresentarem sobre-endividamento. Os Municípios de ideologia de esquerda têm mais endividamento, nos anos eleitorais não possuem tanta dívida e quando o partido político do executivo Municipal é o mesmo do governo central verifica-se uma redução do endividamento Municipal.
The indebtedness of Portuguese Municipalities has been a constant concern over the years due to the large contribution to the national public debt. The Financial Regime of Local Authorities and Intermunicipal Entities introduced several legislative changes aiming to promote the reduction of municipal debt. Given the importance of knowing the reasons for such high indebtedness, the objective of this research is to identify the factors that drive indebtedness as well as over-indebtedness. In particular, it seeks to understand the impact of Municipal transparency on the evolution of Municipal debt. Based on the collection of data for the 308 Portuguese Municipalities, in a period of analysis of 8 years starting in 2012 to 2019, concerning economic-financial, political-ideological and institutional factors, the quantitative methodology is used, namely the least squares model for panel data in order to know the main determinants of indebtedness. Next, and taking into account the existence of several Municipalities that exceed the total debt limit defined by central government, logistic regression models (Logit) are used to understand which factors contribute more to explain a higher probability of over-indebtedness in Municipalities. The results show that Municipalities with higher financial independence and governed by a majority are less likely to be over-indebted, and that Municipalities with a low level of Municipal transparency are more likely to be over-indebted. Municipalities with a left-wing ideology have more debt, in election years they do not have as much debt and when the political party of the Municipal Executive is the same as that of the central government, there is a reduction in Municipal indebtedness.
The indebtedness of Portuguese Municipalities has been a constant concern over the years due to the large contribution to the national public debt. The Financial Regime of Local Authorities and Intermunicipal Entities introduced several legislative changes aiming to promote the reduction of municipal debt. Given the importance of knowing the reasons for such high indebtedness, the objective of this research is to identify the factors that drive indebtedness as well as over-indebtedness. In particular, it seeks to understand the impact of Municipal transparency on the evolution of Municipal debt. Based on the collection of data for the 308 Portuguese Municipalities, in a period of analysis of 8 years starting in 2012 to 2019, concerning economic-financial, political-ideological and institutional factors, the quantitative methodology is used, namely the least squares model for panel data in order to know the main determinants of indebtedness. Next, and taking into account the existence of several Municipalities that exceed the total debt limit defined by central government, logistic regression models (Logit) are used to understand which factors contribute more to explain a higher probability of over-indebtedness in Municipalities. The results show that Municipalities with higher financial independence and governed by a majority are less likely to be over-indebted, and that Municipalities with a low level of Municipal transparency are more likely to be over-indebted. Municipalities with a left-wing ideology have more debt, in election years they do not have as much debt and when the political party of the Municipal Executive is the same as that of the central government, there is a reduction in Municipal indebtedness.
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Keywords
Endividamento Sobre-endividamento Municípios portugueses Transparência