Publicação
Parametric study of a stochastic SEIR model for a COVID-19 post-pandemic scenario
| dc.contributor.author | Balsa, Carlos | |
| dc.contributor.author | Padua, Everaldo Junior Borges Garcia de | |
| dc.contributor.author | Pinto, Luan Crisostomo | |
| dc.contributor.author | Rufino, José | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-02-20T15:06:44Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-02-20T15:06:44Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Despite the end of the COVID-19 pandemic was decreed by the WHO, this disease has not disappeared and continues to claim victims. Thus, it remains important to follow up, monitor, and project its evolution in the short term. To that end, mathematical models are a precious tool. Based on its results, it is possible to take preventive measures that minimize the spread of this contagious disease. This study focuses on the stochastic SEIR epidemic model adapted to a post-pandemic scenario. The main factors that influence the spread and containment of the disease are considered, namely, the rates of transmission, vaccination, and quarantine. The results obtained point to a probability of nearly 12% of the appearance of a major epidemic outbreak that could affect a large part of the population. Without vaccination, it is expected that an epidemic outbreak will infect 75% of the population. Therefore, the maintenance of adequate vaccination rates is an essential measure to overcome the loss of immunity from the vaccinated or recovered individuals. | pt_PT |
| dc.description.sponsorship | The authors are grateful to the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, Portugal) for financial support through national funds FCT/MCTES (PIDDAC) CeDRI (UIDB/05757/2020 and UIDP/05757/2020) and SusTEC (LA/P/0007/2021). | pt_PT |
| dc.description.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.citation | Balsa, Carlos; Padua, Everaldo Junior Borges Garcia de; Pinto, Luan Crisostomo; Rufino, José (2024). Parametric study of a stochastic SEIR model for a COVID-19 post-pandemic scenario. In 3rd International Conference on Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability (ARTIIS). ISSN 1865-0929. 1937, p. 43-57 | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/978-3-031-48930-3_4 | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.eissn | 1865-0937 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1865-0929 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/29570 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | pt_PT |
| dc.peerreviewed | yes | pt_PT |
| dc.publisher | Springer Nature | pt_PT |
| dc.relation | LA/P/0007/2021 | pt_PT |
| dc.relation | Research Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics | |
| dc.relation | Research Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics | |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | COVID-19 | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Post-pandemic scenario | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Parametric study | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Stochastic SEIR model | pt_PT |
| dc.title | Parametric study of a stochastic SEIR model for a COVID-19 post-pandemic scenario | pt_PT |
| dc.type | conference paper | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| oaire.awardTitle | Research Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics | |
| oaire.awardTitle | Research Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics | |
| oaire.awardURI | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F05757%2F2020/PT | |
| oaire.awardURI | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F05757%2F2020/PT | |
| oaire.citation.endPage | 57 | pt_PT |
| oaire.citation.startPage | 43 | pt_PT |
| oaire.citation.title | 3rd International Conference on Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability (ARTIIS) | pt_PT |
| oaire.citation.volume | 1937 | pt_PT |
| oaire.fundingStream | 6817 - DCRRNI ID | |
| oaire.fundingStream | 6817 - DCRRNI ID | |
| person.familyName | Balsa | |
| person.familyName | Rufino | |
| person.givenName | Carlos | |
| person.givenName | José | |
| person.identifier | 1721518 | |
| person.identifier.ciencia-id | DE1E-2F7A-AAB1 | |
| person.identifier.ciencia-id | C414-F47F-6323 | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0003-2431-8665 | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0002-1344-8264 | |
| person.identifier.rid | M-8735-2013 | |
| person.identifier.scopus-author-id | 23391719100 | |
| person.identifier.scopus-author-id | 55947199100 | |
| project.funder.identifier | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 | |
| project.funder.identifier | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 | |
| project.funder.name | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | |
| project.funder.name | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | |
| rcaap.rights | restrictedAccess | pt_PT |
| rcaap.type | conferenceObject | pt_PT |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | d0e5ccff-9696-4f4f-9567-8d698a6bf17d | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | 1e24d2ce-a354-442a-bef8-eebadd94b385 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | d0e5ccff-9696-4f4f-9567-8d698a6bf17d | |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication | 6e01ddc8-6a82-4131-bca6-84789fa234bd | |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication | d0a17270-80a8-4985-9644-a04c2a9f2dff | |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | d0a17270-80a8-4985-9644-a04c2a9f2dff |