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Transparência orçamental/fiscal e corrupção na união europeia: análise empírica
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A transparência é fundamental para a boa governação, como também um fator sine qua non no combate à corrupção. Estudos indicam que, apesar dos progressos alcançados, a corrupção e outras irregularidades no setor público dos países da União Europeia fazem com que o score de transparência orçamental esteja ainda abaixo do almejado. Este trabalho visa analisar estatisticamente e compreender a relação entre a transparência orçamental/fiscal, fatores políticos e económicos na União Europeia, focando o período de 2010-2019, utilizando informações estatísticas atualizadas. Trata-se de um estudo quantitativo, explicativo, aplicado e experimental, desenvolvido a partir de 12 hipóteses formuladas com base na Teoria da Agência. A variável dependente é o Índice do Orçamento Aberto (OBI), além de outras 24 variáveis das quais, independentes e de controlo. A amostra resultante do estudo é composta por 14 países: Alemanha, Bulgária, Croácia, Eslováquia, Eslovênia, Espanha, França, Hungria, Itália, Polónia, Portugal, República Tcheca, Roménia e Suécia. A análise bivariada revelou uma associação positiva entre a transparência orçamental/fiscal e variáveis como "Índice de Perceção de Corrupção", "Receitas e Despesas Públicas per capita", "Liberdade Económica" e "População Total". Uma associação negativa foi observada entre o OBI e o "PIB per capita". Não foram encontradas associações estatisticamente significativas entre o OBI e "Endividamento" e "Densidade Demográfica". Na análise multivariada, o modelo mais explicativo incluiu “Receita per capita", "PIB per capita", "Endividamento" e "Despesas Públicas", apresentando um coeficiente de determinação ajustado de 65,8%. Conclui-se que o estudo é relevante para compreender os fatores que mais influenciam a transparência orçamental na União Europeia, destacando-se a necessidade de maior eficiência nos regulamentos e de educação financeira pública. Futuros estudos devem incluir novas variáveis para aumentar o poder preditivo do modelo.
Transparency is fundamental to good governance, as well as a sine qua non factor in the fight against corruption. Studies indicate that, despite the progress achieved, corruption and other irregularities in the public sector of European Union countries mean that the budget transparency score is still below the desired level. This work aims to statistically analyze and understand the relationship between budgetary/fiscal transparency, political and economic factors in the European Union, focusing on the period from 2010 to 2019, using updated statistical information. It is a quantitative, explanatory, applied, and experimental study, developed from 12 hypotheses formulated based on Agency Theory. The dependent variable is the Open Budget Index (OBI), in addition to 24 other variables, which are independent and control variables. The resulting study sample comprises 14 countries: Germany, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Sweden. Bivariate analysis revealed a positive association between budgetary/fiscal transparency and variables such as the "Corruption Perceptions Index", "Public Revenue and Expenditure per capita", "Economic Freedom", and "Total Population". A negative association was observed between the OBI and "GDP per capita". No statistically significant associations were found between the OBI and " Public Debt" and "Population Density". In the multivariate analysis, the most explanatory model included "Revenue per capita", "GDP per capita", " Public Debt", and "Public Expenditure", presenting an adjusted coefficient of determination of 65.8%. It is concluded that the study is relevant for understanding the factors that most influence budget transparency in the European Union, highlighting the need for greater efficiency in regulations and public financial education. Future studies should include new variables to increase the predictive power of the model.
Transparency is fundamental to good governance, as well as a sine qua non factor in the fight against corruption. Studies indicate that, despite the progress achieved, corruption and other irregularities in the public sector of European Union countries mean that the budget transparency score is still below the desired level. This work aims to statistically analyze and understand the relationship between budgetary/fiscal transparency, political and economic factors in the European Union, focusing on the period from 2010 to 2019, using updated statistical information. It is a quantitative, explanatory, applied, and experimental study, developed from 12 hypotheses formulated based on Agency Theory. The dependent variable is the Open Budget Index (OBI), in addition to 24 other variables, which are independent and control variables. The resulting study sample comprises 14 countries: Germany, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Sweden. Bivariate analysis revealed a positive association between budgetary/fiscal transparency and variables such as the "Corruption Perceptions Index", "Public Revenue and Expenditure per capita", "Economic Freedom", and "Total Population". A negative association was observed between the OBI and "GDP per capita". No statistically significant associations were found between the OBI and " Public Debt" and "Population Density". In the multivariate analysis, the most explanatory model included "Revenue per capita", "GDP per capita", " Public Debt", and "Public Expenditure", presenting an adjusted coefficient of determination of 65.8%. It is concluded that the study is relevant for understanding the factors that most influence budget transparency in the European Union, highlighting the need for greater efficiency in regulations and public financial education. Future studies should include new variables to increase the predictive power of the model.
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Palavras-chave
Transparência orçamental/fiscal Corrupção União Europeia Setor Público