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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Ultramarathon running is of increasing popularity, where the time-limited 24-hour run is one of the
most popular events. Although we have a high scientific knowledge about different topics for this
specific race format, we do not know where the best 24-hour runners originate from and where the
fastest races are held. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the origin of these runners
and the fastest race locations. A machine learning model based on the XG Boost algorithm was built
to predict running speed based on the athlete´s age, gender, country of origin and the country where
the race takes place. Model explainability tools were used to investigate how each independent
variable would influence the predicted running speed. A sample of 171,358 race records from 63,514
unique runners from 73 countries participating in 24-hour races held in 57 countries between 1807 and
2022 was analyzed. Most of the athletes originated from the USA, France, Germany, Great Britain,
Italy, Japan, Russia, Australia, Austria, and Canada. Tunisian athletes achieved the fastest average
running speed, followed by runners from Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Island, Croatia, Slovenia, and
Israel. Regarding the country of the event, the ranking looks quite similar to the participation by the
athlete, suggesting a high correlation between the country of origin and the country of the event. The
fastest 24-hour races are recorded in Israel, Romania, Korea, the Netherlands, Russia, and Taiwan.
On average, men were 0.4 km/h faster than women, and the fastest runners belonged to age groups
35–39, 40–44, and 45–49 years. In summary, the 24-hour race format is spread over the world, and
the fastest athletes mainly originate from Eastern Europe, while the fastest races were organized in
European and Asian countries.
Description
Keywords
Ultra-endurance Nationality Origin Performance Machine learning
Citation
Knechtle, Beat; Valero, David; Villiger, Elias; Scheer, Volker; Weiss, Katja; Forte, Pedro; Thuany, Mabliny; Vancini, Rodrigo Luiz; Lira, Claudio Andre Barbosa de; Nikolaidis, Pantelis T.; Ouerghi, Nejmeddine; Rosemann, Thomas (2024). The fastest 24-hour ultramarathoners are from Eastern Europe. Scientific Reports. ISSN 2045-2322. 14, p. 1-17
Publisher
Springer Nature