Browsing by Author "Valero, David"
Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- Analysis of over 1 million race records shows runners from East African countries as the fastest in 50-km ultra-marathonsPublication . Weiss, Katja; Valero, David; Villiger, Elias; Thuany, Mabliny; Forte, Pedro; Gajda, Robert; Scheer, Volker; Sreckovic, Sreten; Cuk, Ivan; Nikolaidis, Pantelis Theo; Andrade, Marilia Santos; Knechtle, BeatThe 50-km ultra-marathon is a popular race distance, slightly longer than the classic marathon distance. However, little is known about the country of affiliation and age of the fastest 50-km ultra-marathon runners and where the fastest races are typically held. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate a large dataset of race records for the 50-km distance race to identify the country of affiliation and the age of the fastest runners as well as the locations of the fastest races. A total of 1,398,845 50-km race records (men, n = 1,026,546; women, n = 372,299) were analyzed using both descriptive statistics and advanced regression techniques. This study revealed significant trends in the performance of 50-km ultra-marathoners. The fastest 50-km runners came from African countries, while the fastest races were found to occur in Europe and the Middle East. Runners from Ethiopia, Lesotho, Malawi, and Kenya were the fastest in this race distance. The fastest 50-km racecourses, providing ideal conditions for faster race times, are in Europe (Luxembourg, Belarus, and Lithuania) and the Middle East (Qatar and Jordan). Surprisingly, the fastest ultra-marathoners in the 50-km distance were found to fall into the age group of 20–24 years, challenging the conventional belief that peak ultra-marathon performance comes in older age groups. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the performance models in 50-km ultra-marathons and can serve as valuable insights for runners, coaches, and race organizers in optimizing training strategies and racecourse selection.
- Cycling and Running are More Predictive of Overall Race Finish Time than Swimming in IRONMAN® Age Group TriathletesPublication . Knechtle, Beat; Valero, David; Villiger, Elias; Thuany, Mabliny; Cuk, Ivan; Forte, Pedro; Andrade, Marilia Santos; Nikolaidis, Pantelis T.; Rosemann, Thomas; Weiss, KatjaSeveral studies have evaluated the most predictive discipline (swimming, cycling, and running) of performance in elite IRONMAN® triathletes. However, no study has ever determined the most decisive discipline for IRONMAN® age group triathletes. The present study analyzed the importance of the three disciplines on the overall race times in IRONMAN® age group triathletes, in order to try and determine the most predictive discipline in IRONMAN® for age group triathletes, and whether the importance of the split disciplines changes with increasing age. This cross-sectional study used 687,696 IRONMAN® age group triathletes race records (553,608 from males and 134,088 from females). Age group athletes were divided in 5-year age groups (i.e., 18–24, 25–29, 30–34,…,70–74, and last 75 + years). The relationships between split disciplines (i.e., swimming, cycling, and running) and overall race times were evaluated using Spearman and Pearson correlations. A multi-linear regression model was used to calculate their prediction strength. The overall finish time correlated more with cycling and running times than with swimming times for both male and female IRONMAN® age group triathletes (r = 0.88 and r = 0.89 for females; r = 0.89 and r = 0.90 for males, respectively). All correlation coefficients decreased with increasing age, which was more noticeable for the swimming discipline. Both cycling and running are more predictive than swimming in IRONMAN® age group triathletes, where the correlation between the overall race times and the split times decreased with increasing age more in swimming than in cycling and running. These insights are useful for IRONMAN® age group triathletes and their coaches in planning their IRONMAN® race preparation and concentrating training on the more predictive disciplines.
- Elderly female ultra-marathoners reduced the gap to male ultra-marathoners in Swiss running racesPublication . Knechtle, Beat; Witthoft, Anja; Valero, David; Thuany, Mabliny; Nikolaidis, Pantelis Theo; Scheer, Volker; Forte, Pedro; Weiss, KatjaRecent studies showed that female runners reduced the performance gap to male runners in endurance running with increasing age and race distance. However, the investigated samples were generally small. To investigate this further, the present study examined sex differences by age across various race distances (5, 10 km, half-marathon, marathon, and ultra-marathon) using a large dataset of over 1,100,000 race records from Switzerland over two decades (1999-2019). The study explored performance and participation disparities between male and female runners by employing diverse methods, such as descriptive statistics, histograms, scatter and line plots, correlations, and a predictive machine learning model. The results showed that female runners were more prevalent in shorter races (5, 10 km, half-marathon) and outnumbered male runners in 5 km races. However, as the race distance increased, the male-to-female ratio declined. Notably, the performance gap between sexes reduced with age until 70 years, after which it varied depending on the race distance. Among participants over 75 years old, ultra-marathon running exhibited the smallest sex difference in performance. Elderly female ultra-marathoners (75 years and older) displayed a performance difference of less than 4% compared to male ultra-marathoners, which may be attributed to the presence of highly selected outstanding female performers.
- A machine learning approach to finding the fastest race course for professional athletes competing in Ironman® 70.3 races between 2004 and 2020Publication . Thuany, Mabliny; Valero, David; Villiger, Elias; Forte, Pedro; Weiss, Katja; Nikolaidis, Pantelis Theo; Andrade, Marília S.; Cuk, Ivan; Sousa, Caio Victor; Knechtle, BeatOur purpose was to find the fastest race courses for elite Ironman® 70.3 athletes, using machine learning (ML) algorithms. We collected the data of all professional triathletes competing between 2004 and 2020 in Ironman 70.3 races held worldwide. A sample of 16,611 professional athletes originating from 97 different countries and competing in 163 different races was thus obtained. Four different ML regression models were built, with gender, country of origin, and event location considered as independent variables to predict the final race time. For all the models, gender was the most important variable in predicting finish times. Attending to the single decision tree model, the fastest race times in the Ironman® 70.3 World Championship of around ~4 h 03 min would be achieved by men from Austria, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Switzerland, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, South Africa, Canada, and New Zealand. Considering the World Championship is the target event for most professional athletes, it is expected that training is planned so that they attain their best performance in this event.
- A study of the fastest courses for professional triathletes competing in IRONMAN® triathlonsPublication . Thuany, Mabliny; Valero, David; Villiger, Elias; Fernandes, Matheus Santos Sousa; Forte, Pedro; Weiss, Katja; Nikolaidis, Pantelis Theo; Cuk, Ivan; Knechtle, BeatPurpose. The IRONMAN® triathlon is an endurance multisport discipline of high popularity. Professional IRONMAN® triathletes need to qualify for the IRONMAN® World Championships and, therefore, would benefit from identifying the fastest race courses. Our purpose was to identify the fastest races held for professional IRONMAN® triathletes competing from 2002 to 2022. Methods. This was an observational study, sampling 7,078 race records (380 different events in 55 different event locations) of professional IRONMAN® triathletes of both sexes (4,235 males and 2,843 females). We downloaded information about sex, nationality, both split (swimming, cycling, and running) and overall race times, the event location, and the year. Information about race course characteristics, water temperatures, and air temperatures was obtained. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each event location, and factorial ANOVA tests were used to explore the statistical significance of the results. A confidence interval of 95% was adopted. Results. The fastest overall IRONMAN® average race times were achieved during the IRONMAN® Tallinn, IRONMAN® Switzerland held in Thun, and IRONMAN® Des Moines. A lake for the swim split characterized the first five courses, while the bike split featured rolling or hilly terrain. For the run split, most of the courses were characterized as flat. For environmental characteristics, lower water and air temperatures also added time to the average finish time. Conclusions. Understanding the fastest race courses and their characteristics would assist professional IRONMAN® triathletes in selecting races that offer the optimal conditions for their competition. Fast IRONMAN® race courses typically feature a lakeside swim course, a rolling or hilly bike course, and a flat run course.
- The fastest 24-hour ultramarathoners are from Eastern EuropePublication . Knechtle, Beat; Valero, David; Villiger, Elias; Scheer, Volker; Weiss, Katja; Forte, Pedro; Thuany, Mabliny; Vancini, Rodrigo Luiz; Lira, Claudio A.B. de; Nikolaidis, Pantelis Theo; Ouerghi, Nejmeddine; Rosemann, ThomasUltramarathon running is of increasing popularity, where the time-limited 24-hour run is one of the most popular events. Although we have a high scientific knowledge about different topics for this specific race format, we do not know where the best 24-hour runners originate from and where the fastest races are held. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the origin of these runners and the fastest race locations. A machine learning model based on the XG Boost algorithm was built to predict running speed based on the athlete´s age, gender, country of origin and the country where the race takes place. Model explainability tools were used to investigate how each independent variable would influence the predicted running speed. A sample of 171,358 race records from 63,514 unique runners from 73 countries participating in 24-hour races held in 57 countries between 1807 and 2022 was analyzed. Most of the athletes originated from the USA, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Russia, Australia, Austria, and Canada. Tunisian athletes achieved the fastest average running speed, followed by runners from Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Island, Croatia, Slovenia, and Israel. Regarding the country of the event, the ranking looks quite similar to the participation by the athlete, suggesting a high correlation between the country of origin and the country of the event. The fastest 24-hour races are recorded in Israel, Romania, Korea, the Netherlands, Russia, and Taiwan. On average, men were 0.4 km/h faster than women, and the fastest runners belonged to age groups 35–39, 40–44, and 45–49 years. In summary, the 24-hour race format is spread over the world, and the fastest athletes mainly originate from Eastern Europe, while the fastest races were organized in European and Asian countries.
- The influence of origin and race location on performance in IRONMAN® age group triathletesPublication . Knechtle, Beat; Valero, David; Villiger, Elias; Thuany, Mabliny; Nikolaidis, Pantelis Theo; Cuk, Ivan; Andrade, Marilia Santos; Forte, Pedro; Braschler, Lorin; Rosemann, Thomas; Weiss, KatjaThe IRONMAN® (IM) triathlon is a popular multi-sport, where age group athletes often strive to qualify for the IM World Championship in Hawaii. The aim of the present study was to investigate the location of the fastest IM racecourses for age group IM triathletes. This knowledge will help IM age group triathletes find the best racecourse, considering their strengths and weaknesses, to qualify. To determine the fastest IM racecourse for age group IM triathletes using descriptive and predictive statistical methods. We collected and analyzed 677,702 age group IM finishers’ records from 228 countries participating in 444 IM competitions held between 2002 and 2022 across 66 event locations. Locations were ranked by average race speed (performance), and countries were sorted by number of records in the sample (participation). A predictive model was built with race finish time as the predicted variable and the triathlete’s gender, age group, country of origin, event location, average air, and water temperatures in each location as predictors. The model was trained with 75% of the available data and was validated against the remaining 25%. Several model interpretability tools were used to explore how each predictor contributed to the model’s predictive power, from which we intended to infer whether one or more predictors were more important than the others. The average race speed ranking showed IM Vitoria-Gasteiz (1 race only), IM Copenhagen (8 races), IM Hawaii (18 races), IM Tallinn (4 races) and IM Regensburg (2 races) in the first five positions. The XG Boost Regressor model analysis indicated that the IM Hawaii course was the fastest race course and that male athletes aged 35 years and younger were the fastest. Most of the finishers were competing in IM triathlons held in the US, such as IM Wisconsin, IM Florida, IM Lake Placid, IM Arizona, and IM Hawaii, where the IM World Championship took place. However, the fastest average times were achieved in IM Vitoria-Gasteiz, IM Copenhagen, IM Hawaii, IM Tallin, IM Regensburg, IM Brazil Florianopolis, IM Barcelona, or IM Austria with the absolutely fastest race time in IM Hawaii. Most of the successful IM finishers originated from the US, followed by athletes from the UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, and France. The best mean IM race times were achieved by athletes from Austria, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Finland, and Denmark. Regarding environmental conditions, the best IM race times were achieved at an air temperature of ∼27°C and a water temperature of ∼24°C. IM age group athletes who intend to qualify for IM World Championship in IM Hawaii are encouraged to participate in IM Austria, IM Copenhagen, IM Brazil Florianopolis, and/or IM Barcelona in order to achieve a fast race time to qualify for the IM World Championship in IM Hawaii where the top race times were achieved. Most likely these races offer the best ambient temperatures for a fast race time.