Browsing by Author "Fernandes, Paulo M."
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- Assessment of fire hazard regulation ecosystem service in a mountain area in northeastern PortugalPublication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Marta-Pedroso, Cristina; Alonso, Joaquim; Honrado, João P.; Perera, Ajith H.; Azevedo, JoãoThe fire hazard regulation ecosystem service (ES) is the capacity of ecosystems and landscapes to maintain the frequency and intensity of fire events. Assessing how ecosystems and landscapes regulate fire hazard is of utmost importance to avoid or mitigate negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts as well as to understand the benefits that human societies can obtain and their value. This study aimed to understand how landscape change affects fire behavior at the landscape level and to understand how these changes in fire impact human communities, i.e., what is the role of the landscape structure in the provision of the fire hazard regulation ES and what is the value of this service. This allows the identification of trends in present landscapes that can be used in future planning and management. The study was conducted in the Sabor River’s upper basin in northeastern Portugal. The assessment was based on fire behavior modeling in the study area under five landscape scenarios (1990, 2006 and three future alternative landscapes). Modeling was conducted with BFOLDS (Fire Regime Model, v2.0). Simulations ran under extreme weather conditions, from thirty ignition points randomly located. The valuation assessment was based in the potential effects of fire on timber, firewood and mushrooms production, based on the relationship between average burned area and the economic value of ES. Between 1990 and 2006 the simulated average burned area increased while the average fire intensity decreased over time. Regarding the three alternative scenarios, the forest expansion scenario showed, on average, larger and more intense fires when compared with the rural abandonment and the shrubland expansion scenarios, as well as with previous dates. The potential losses in ES in monetary units followed the trends observed for fire behavior. In spite of this, the forest expansion scenario shows the highest supply and value of ES.
- Climate regulation ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation are enhanced differently by climate-and fire-smart landscape managementPublication . Campos, João C.; Rodrigues, Sara; Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Hermoso, Virgilio; Freitas, Teresa R.; Santos, João A.; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Azevedo, João; Honrado, João P.; Regos, AdriánThe implementation of climate-smart policies to enhance carbon sequestration and reduce emissions is being encouraged worldwide to fight climate change. Afforestation practices and rewilding initiatives are climate-smart examples suggested to tackle these issues. In contrast, fire-smart approaches, by stimulating traditional farmland activities or agroforestry practices, could also assist climate regulation while protecting biodiversity. However, there is scarce information concerning the potential impacts of these alternative land management strategies on climate regulation ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. As such, this work simulates future effects of different land management strategies in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain). Climate-smart (‘Afforestation’, ‘Rewilding’) and fire-smart (‘Farmland recovery’, ‘Agroforestry recovery’) scenarios were modelled over a period of 60 years (1990–2050), and their impacts on climate regulation services were evaluated. Species distribution models for 207 vertebrates were built and future gains/losses in climate-habitat suitability were quantified. Results suggest climate-smart policies as the best for climate regulation (0.98 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 of mean carbon sequestration increase and 6801.5 M€ of avoided economic losses in 2020–2050 under Afforestation scenarios), while providing the largest habitat gains for threatened species (around 50% for endangered and critically endangered species under Rewilding scenarios). Fire-smart scenarios also benefit carbon regulation services (0.82 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 of mean carbon sequestration increase and 3476.3 M€ of avoided economic losses in 2020–2050 under Agroforestry scenarios), benefiting the majority of open-habitat species. This study highlights the main challenges concerning management policies in European rural mountains, while informing decision-makers regarding landscape planning under global change.
- Climate- and fire-smart landscape scenarios call for redesigning protection regimes to achieve multiple management goalsPublication . Iglesias, Miguel Cánibe; Hermoso, Virgilio; Campos, João C.; Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Freitas, Teresa R.; Honrado, João P.; Santos, João A.; Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Regos, Adrián; Azevedo, JoãoIntegrated management of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) in heterogeneous landscapes requires considering the potential trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The UNESCO's Biosphere Reserve zoning scheme is a suitable context to address these trade-offs by considering multiple management zones that aim to minimise conflicts between management objectives. Moreover, in Mediterranean ecosystems, management and planning also needs to consider drivers of landscape dynamics such as wildfires and traditional farming and forestry practices that have historically shaped landscapes and the biodiversity they host. In this study, we applied a conservation planning approach to prioritise the allocation of management zones under future landscape and climate scenarios. We tested different landscape management scenarios reflecting the outcomes of climate-smart and fire-smart policies. We projected the expected landscape dynamics and associated changes on the distribution of 207 vertebrate species, 4 ES and fire hazard under each scenario. We used Marxan with Zones to allocate three management zones, replicating the Biosphere Reserves zoning scheme (“Core area”, “Buffer zone” and “Transition area”) to address the various management objectives within the Biosphere Reserve. Our results show that to promote ES supply and biodiversity conservation, while also minimising fire hazard, the reserve will need to: i) Redefine its zoning, especially regarding Core Areas, which need a considerable expansion to help mitigate changes in biodiversity and accommodate ES supply under expected changes in climate and species distribution. ii) Revisit current management policies that will result in encroached landscapes prone to high intensity, uncontrollable wildfires with the potential to heavily damage ecosystems and compromise the supply of ES. Our results support that both climate- and fire-smart policies in the Meseta Ibérica can help develop multifunctional landscapes that help mitigate and adapt to climate change and ensure the best possible maintenance of biodiversity and ES supply under uncertain future climate conditions.
- Comportamento do fogo em diferentes períodos e configurações de uma paisagem no nordeste de PortugalPublication . Magalhães, Simone; Ribeiro, Carlos Antonio Alvares Soares; Castro, José; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Silva, Carlos Alberto Rodrigues Loureiro; Pinheiro, Helena; Azevedo, JoãoNeste trabalho aborda-se a importância do planejamento do uso e ocupação do solo, e do manejo dos sistemas florestais na redução do perigo de incêndio, analisando-se o comportamento do fogo em relação às alterações na paisagem da Deilão, nordeste de Portugal. Foram utilizadas cadeias de Markov e modelos de autômatos celulares como metodologia para projetar a paisagem no futuro. FlamMap foi utilizado para simular o comportamento do fogo. De acordo com as métricas da paisagem obtidas no Fragstats, observou- se que os cenários e projeções em Deilão têm uma tendência à simplificação da paisagem, o que pode facilitar a ocorrência de incêndios maiores e mais graves. A análise dos resultados indicou uma tendência ao aumento do perigo de incêndios na região, em grande parte, ocasionado pela expansão de plantações contínuas de florestas. Para evitar tais impactos, o manejo florestal e ordenamento da paisagem devem ser modificados a fim de se reduzir o acúmulo de materiais combustíveis.
- Dinâmica e serviços da paisagem no Nordeste de PortugalPublication . Azevedo, João; Castro, João Paulo; Pinheiro, Helena; Moreira, César; Magalhães, Simone; Loureiro, Carlos; Fernandes, Paulo M.Neste trabalho são abordados os serviços de ecossistema relevantes à escala da paisagem num contexto de transformação do território. O principal objetivo é avaliar os efeitos potenciais das alterações da paisagem no serviço de regulação de perturbações (fogo) proporcionado pelos sistemas ecológicos na região do Nordeste de Portugal (Trás-os-Montes). Discute-se o conceito de serviço de ecossistema explorando os aspetos que mais contribuíram para a popularização desta abordagem e para a sua aplicação em políticas e práticas de gestão e conservação de ecossistemas e paisagens. São destacados os serviços cujo enquadramento é exclusivo ou apenas integralmente abordável à escala da paisagem, aqui designados por serviços de paisagem, nomeadamente os serviços de regulação do fogo. Descrevem-se os processos de alteração da paisagem em curso na região do Nordeste de Portugal com base nos casos das freguesias de França e Deilão onde nos últimos 50 anos se verificou uma redução acentuada da área agrícola e uma expansão das áreas florestais, embora com efeitos opostos na estrutura dessas paisagens. Analisa-se, neste contexto, a forma como estas alterações afetam a regulação do fogo com base em resultados de trabalhos de modelação e simulação do comportamento do fogo conduzidos nas mesmas freguesias. Verificou-se que a paisagem tende a acumular e a aumentar a continuidade espacial de combustível ao longo do tempo o que é correspondido pelo aumento do risco de incêndio na paisagem, favorecendo a ocorrência de fogos de maior intensidade em áreas mais extensas. No final, discute-se o papel da gestão em paisagens culturais em rápida transformação e no fornecimento de serviços, nomeadamente de paisagem.
- Exploring the concept of fire protection ecosystem service in changing forested landscapesPublication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Rodrigues, Ana Paula; Alonso, Joaquim; Honrado, João P.; Perera, Ajith H.; Azevedo, JoãoLandscapes and ecosystems play an important role in fire regulation and in the mitigation of potential negative effects of extreme fire events. Fire protection regulated by ecosystems and landscapes can thus be considered as an ecosystem service with significant benefits for humans’ safety, health and economy. Although fire is an important ecological process in most of the planet, fire regulating and protection by ecosystems and landscapes from an ecosystem service conceptual framework perspective have been insufficiently addressed in the literature. In this research we explore the concept of Fire Protection Ecosystem Service (FPES) based on the Fire Regulation Capacity (FRC) and their application in the assessment of socioecological effects of landscape change in mountains landscapes facing rural abandonment. We analyzed responses of FRC and FPES to changes in the landscape structure based on modeling using BFOLDS-FRM for years 1990 and 2006, and three landscape scenarios for 2020 under extreme fire weather conditions. FPES supply and economic value were assessed based on proxies of FRC (burned area and fire intensity) and economic damage caused by fire. Fire events over 100 ha increased in the area since 1990, indicating a reduction in the capacity of the landscape to regulate large and extreme fires, which may decline further in future landscape scenarios. The supply in the FPES is expected to decrease in the area, particularly when fuel builds up and becomes spatially connected in the landscape. The economic value of the FPES is also expected to decrease over time, despite the differences observed among scenarios. Planning and Management of mountains regions experiencing change through abandonment (aggravated by future climatic conditions) must take into account trends and patterns in fire regulation and protection to sustain and enhance the provision of ecosystem services in general and promote sustainability in Mediterranean mountain areas.
- Exploring the potential of vegetation corridors in forest fire hazard reduction at the landscape level: examples from PortugalPublication . Azevedo, João; Possacos, Anabela; Dias, Rui; Marrão, Rosalina; Loureiro, Carlos; Fernandes, Paulo M.In north-eastern Portugal, holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia) woodlands have persisted in the landscape despite the occurrence of frequent fires. The hypothesis that these elements have a role in fire related processes has been proposed by foresters and scientists but only recently it has been addressed. In this research we analysed the current distribution of holm oak remnants in the region in terms of features such as slope, aspect, distance to streams, and position in the slope. We also compared their distribution in relation to the distribution of areas burned in the last decades. We found that holm oak woodlands are often adjacent to burned areas suggesting a barrier effect of these vegetation structures. Also, the woodlands are often located towards the bottom of very steep slopes. Additionally, we tested the hypothesis that these patches arrest wildfires based on a modeling and simulation approach using field data collected in edges of holm oak woodlands. Computer simulated fire behaviour provided evidence that variations in intensity and velocity across holm oak edges make it possible for these woodlands to affect significantly fire spread. Founded on these results we explored the potential for holm oak corridors to be used in fire hazard reduction planning.
- Farmland abandonment decreases the fire regulation capacity and the fire protection ecosystem service in mountain landscapesPublication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Rodrigues, Ana Paula; Alonso, Joaquim; Honrado, João P.; Perera, Ajith H.; Azevedo, JoãoThis study explored and applied the concepts of Fire Regulation Capacity (FRC) and Fire Protection Ecosystem Service (FPES) in the assessment of the effects of landscape change in a mountain fire-prone landscape in Portugal. We adopted a modeling and simulation approach using BFOLDS-FRM with landscape data for years 1990 and 2006 (observed) and with three landscape scenarios for 2020. Proxy indicators for FRC (burned area and fire intensity) and for economic damage by fire (loss of provisioning ES) were used to establish trends in the supply and value of FPES. We found decreased FRC to restrain simulated fires burning over 100 ha from 1990 on and to regulate Very High and Extreme fire intensity levels, particularly under our 2020 scenario of Forest expansion. FPES is also expected to decrease, as indicated by higher fire-related damages, particularly if fuel hazard increases in the landscape. However, there were differences among scenarios, suggesting potential tradeoffs between FPES and the supply of provisioning ES. Planning and management in this and similar areas experiencing farmland abandonment must consider fire trends and patterns, since landscape change is a major driver affecting FRC and FPES, which may further be decreased by future climatic conditions.
- Fine-tuning the BFOLDS fire regime module to support the assessment of fire-related functions and services in a changing Mediterranean mountain landscapePublication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Azevedo, João; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Alonso, Joaquim; Honrado, João P.Fire simulation models are useful to advance fire research and improve landscape management. However, a better understanding of these tools is crucial to increase their reliability and expansion into research fields where their application remains limited (e.g., ecosystem services). We evaluated several components of the BFOLDS Fire Regime Module and then tested its ability to simulate fire regime attributes in a Mediterranean mountainous landscape. Based on model outputs, we assessed the landscape fire regulation capacity over time and its implications for supporting the climate regulation ecosystem service. We found that input data quality and the adjustment of fuel and fire behaviour parameters are crucial to accurately emulating key fire regime attributes. Besides, the high predictive capacity shown by BFOLDS-FRM allows to reliably inform the planning and sustainable management of fire-prone mountainous areas of the Mediterranean. Moreover, we identified and discussed modelling limitations and made recommendations to improve future model applications.
- Landscape change monitoring and analysis in northeastern PortugalPublication . Azevedo, João; Rachdi, Soukaina; Qaouqaou, Youssef; Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Deusdado, SérgioChange is an inherent condition in landscapes. In the Northeast of Portugal landscape change is currently driven mostly by agriculture abandonment and agriculture and energy policy. Ongoing change affects not just landscape patterns but also physical, biological, and socioeconomic processes, and the ecosystem services that result from them. Landscape change in the region has been studied for more 20 years in different and complementary perspectives. However, there are increasing needs for monitoring and predicting changes in composition, configuration, processes, functions, and services in the landscape. This work summarizes two thesis projects currently under development intending to contribute to monitoring landscape change and to assess effects of these changes in landscape processes in the Northeastern region of Portugal. One project aims to establish an online repository of oblique digital photography from the region to be used to register the condition of the landscape as recorded in historical and contemporary photography over time as well as to support qualitative and quantitative assessment of change in the landscape using repeat photography techniques and methods. It involves the development of a database and a series of protocols using PHP: Hypertext Preprocessor language, and the development of an interface, with Joomla, for pictures uploading and downloading by users. The repository will make possible to upload, store, search by location, theme, or date, display, and download pictures for Northeastern Portugal. The second project aims to understand and model the effects of Holm oak woodlands on fire behavior at the landscape level in the same region. It has been previously observed that Holm oak woodlands have an effect on the spread of fire at the edge scale. In this study we address this effect at the landscape level based on modeling and simulation of fire behavior in the Upper Sabor watershed, north of Bragança. We use the FlamMap model with elevation, weather, and land use data for simulating spread rate, flame length, and fireline intensity. Holm oak is tested in terms of area and configuration of woodlands in the landscape according to scenarios built based on the likely expansion of these vegetation units in the future in the area of study.