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Authors
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Over the past decades, European labour market policies, like the
Portuguese, offer not only a set of simultaneous active programmes, to the
universe of unemployed registered individuals, but also the possibility of
successive participation in different active programmes. Such dynamic
participation patterns have as a consequence different average causal effects
to participants. Aware of this reality, the present paper discusses how to
overcome the limitations of the traditional labour market microeconometric
evaluation literature, eminently static, and empirically estimate the impact of
dynamic selection. In recent years it is possible to report several
developments concerning the introduction of dynamic elements in the
traditional evaluation econometric models. For instance, is important to report
that the causal effects of dynamic sequences make use of potential results
and allow the introduction of intermediate results which determine
subsequent sequences. The application presented in this research study
uses an administrative dataset containing extensive individual information
concerning the active public intervention on the Portuguese labour market.
Based on this dataset, it will be shown that it is possible to make a
quantitative analysis on the impact participation of an unemployed individual
on a sequence of active measures offered by the unemployment office
services. The present empirical study analyses the power of the dynamic
nonparametric model as a fundamental tool for an active labour market policy
evaluation, and allows, even if in an exploratory way, the evaluation of the
consequences of sequential participation. Indeed, based on propensity score
matching microeconometric evaluation techniques – computed through a
probit model - is possible to compute the causal effect of the decision to
postpone participation in an active labour programme vis-à-vis the decision of
consecutive labour programme participation, on the one hand, and
continuous non-participation, on the other. The evaluation results of a consecutive participation decision in comparison with the alternative of non-
participation or postponed participation suggest a low degree of effectiveness
by the Portuguese public intervention in the labour market. Moreover, the
empirical application of a dynamic propensity score methodology seems to be
a quite useful tool for the estimation of dynamic causal effects when the
effectiveness of a sequence of participation decisions is tested compared to a
distinct sequence of decisions.
Description
Keywords
Evaluation research Social programmes Active labour market policies Sequential treatments Propensity score matching
Citation
Nunes, Alcina (2011). Evaluation of dynamic participation in portuguese active employment programmes. In 10th European Conference on Research Methodology for Business and Management Studies. Caen, France. ISBN 978-1-908272-03-4