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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
O setor de atividade com maior peso no consumo final de energia é o dos transportes,
refletindo o sector responsável pela maior parte das emissões de gases com efeito de estufa
(GEE). Neste contexto, e atendendo à crescente penetração de veículos com zero
ou emissão reduzida de GEE e maior eficiência energética, pretende-se contribuir para a
identificação futura do impacto do setor dos transportes no consumo de energia (primária
não transformada e elétrica) e nas emissões decorrentes. Este trabalho tem por objetivo
identificar o consumo de energia no setor e quantificar os níveis de GEE a partir da análise
comparativa do incremento da frota de veículos elétricos em detrimento dos baseados em
combustão interna, em quatros cenários propostos até o ano de 2030. O estudo é aplicado
em Portugal Continental considerando a frota de veículos ligeiros de passageiros e comerciais,
que compreendem a grande maioria da frota portuguesa. O modelo Bottom-up,
onde o detalhamento da árvore hierárquica é construída do detalhe para o todo, é aplicado
ao estudo para determinação das variáveis de consumo de energia e emissões de GEE. A
análise é realizada através da aplicação da ferramenta de simulação denominada Sistema
de Planeamento de Alternativas Energéticas de Longo Alcance (LEAP), de modelação
integrada e baseada em cenários, aqui utilizada para determinar o consumo de energia
e contabilizar as fontes de emissão de GEE. Como resultados, de maneira comparativa
entre os cenários, cada 10% de incremento de veículos EHP reflete em 1,38% de redução
do consumo de energia total e 4,46% de redução de emissões de GEE.
The sector with the highest weight in final energy consumption is the transport sector, reflecting the one responsible for most greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this context, and given the increasing penetration of zero or low GHG emission vehicles and higher energy efficiency, it is intended to contribute to the future identification of the impact of the transport sector on energy consumption (primary and electrical) and resulting emissions. This paper aims to identify the energy consumption in the sector and quantify the GHG levels from the comparative analysis of the increase of the electric vehicle fleet in the detriment of those based in internal combustion engines burning fossil fuels, considering four proposed scenarios until the year 2030. The study is applied in mainland Portugal considering the fleet of light passenger and commercial vehicles, which comprise the vast majority of the Portuguese fleet. The Bottom-up model, where the hierarchical tree detailing is constructed from detail to the whole, is applied to the study to determine the energy consumption and GHG emissions variables. The analysis is performed through the application of the simulation tool called Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), of scenario-based and integrated modelling, wherein utilized to determine energy consumption and account for GHG emission sources. As a result, comparatively between the scenarios, each 10% increase in EHP vehicles reflects a 1.38% reduction in total energy consumption and a 4.46% reduction in GHG emissions.
The sector with the highest weight in final energy consumption is the transport sector, reflecting the one responsible for most greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this context, and given the increasing penetration of zero or low GHG emission vehicles and higher energy efficiency, it is intended to contribute to the future identification of the impact of the transport sector on energy consumption (primary and electrical) and resulting emissions. This paper aims to identify the energy consumption in the sector and quantify the GHG levels from the comparative analysis of the increase of the electric vehicle fleet in the detriment of those based in internal combustion engines burning fossil fuels, considering four proposed scenarios until the year 2030. The study is applied in mainland Portugal considering the fleet of light passenger and commercial vehicles, which comprise the vast majority of the Portuguese fleet. The Bottom-up model, where the hierarchical tree detailing is constructed from detail to the whole, is applied to the study to determine the energy consumption and GHG emissions variables. The analysis is performed through the application of the simulation tool called Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), of scenario-based and integrated modelling, wherein utilized to determine energy consumption and account for GHG emission sources. As a result, comparatively between the scenarios, each 10% increase in EHP vehicles reflects a 1.38% reduction in total energy consumption and a 4.46% reduction in GHG emissions.
Description
Mestrado de dupla diplomação com a UTFPR - Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná
Keywords
Veículos elétricos Consumo de energia GEE Bottom-u