Publication
The impact of macroeconomic factors on the European travel and leisure sector: the context of Russo–Ukrainian war
| dc.contributor.author | Muddasir, Muhammad | |
| dc.contributor.author | Borges, Ana Pinto | |
| dc.contributor.author | Vieira, Elvira Pacheco | |
| dc.contributor.author | Vieira, Bruno Miguel | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-02-03T15:11:26Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-02-03T15:11:26Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study aims to address the macroeconomic factors effect on the travel and leisure (T&L) industry throughout Europe within the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war that have started on 24 February 2022. Specifically, top tourist destinations are analysed, such as Spain, France, Italy and Portugal, as well as Europe in general. Design/methodology/approach – This study adopts the panel regression approach based on the data that is provided on a daily basis, and it covers a period of nearly 14 months, starting on 24 February 2022 and ending on 15 April 2023. Findings – The findings indicate that the European T&L sector is impacted by macroeconomic variables. Namely, the T&L sector is significantly impacted by interest rates, geopolitical risk, oil and gas, whereas inflation has a muted effect, indicating a comparatively lesser influence on the dynamics of the industry. This research contributes to existing literature by providing one of the first quantitative analyses of how macroeconomic factors impact the European T&L business in the context of a geopolitical conflict. Research limitations/implications – A study of the Russian–Ukrainian war may be limited by a number of research constraints. The continuing nature of the conflict, the lack of communication between the parties and potential political prejudice are some of these difficulties. Any research on the Russo- Ukrainian war should be done with these limits in mind. Practical implications – Macroeconomic variables play a significant role on the T&L sector development; therefore, when designing resilience strategies, they need to be accounted for. Originality/value – To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies to analyse how macroeconomic factors affected the European T&L business using a quantitative approach. The macroeconomic variables that were taken into account in this study included interest rates, inflation, oil and petrol prices, as well as the geopolitical risk index. | pt_PT |
| dc.description.abstract | La presente investigación aborda el efecto de los factores macroeconómicos en la industria de viajes y ocio (VyO) en toda Europa en el contexto de la guerra ruso-ucraniana que comenzó el 24 de febrero de 2022. En concreto, se analizan los principales destinos turísticos, como España, Francia, Italia y Portugal, así como Europa en general. Metodología: El estudio adopta un enfoque de regresión de panel basado en datos diarios y cubre un período de casi 14 meses, del 24 de febrero de 2022 al 15 de abril de 2023. Resultados: Nuestros resultados indican que el sector europeo de VyO se ve afectado por variables macroeconómicas. En concreto, el sector se ve significativamente afectado por los tipos de interés, el riesgo geopolítico, el petróleo y el gas, mientras que la inflación tiene un efecto moderado. Limitaciones de la investigación: Un estudio de la guerra ruso-ucraniana puede verse limitado por una serie de restricciones a la investigación. La persistencia del conflicto, la falta de comunicación entre las partes y los posibles prejuicios políticos son algunas de estas dificultades. Cualquier investigación sobre la guerra ruso-ucraniana debe hacerse teniendo en cuenta estos límites. Implicaciones prácticas: Las variables macroeconómicas desempeñan un papel importante en el desarrollo del sector de VyO, por lo que es necesario tenerlas en cuenta al diseñar estrategias de resiliencia. Originalidad: Hasta donde sabemos, este es uno de los primeros estudios que analiza cómo los factores macroeconómicos afectaron al negocio europeo de VyO utilizando un enfoque cuantitativo. Las variables macroeconómicas que se tuvieron en cuenta en este estudio fueron los tipos de interés, la inflación, los precios del petróleo y de la gasolina, así como el índice de riesgo geopolítico. | pt_PT |
| dc.description.sponsorship | The authors are grateful to the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, Portugal) for financial support by national funds FCT/MCTES to UNIAG (UIDB/04752/2020 and UIDP/ 04752/2020). | pt_PT |
| dc.description.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.citation | Muddasir, Muhammad; Borges, Ana Pinto; Vieira, Elvira; Vieira, Bruno Miguel (2024). The impact of macroeconomic factors on the European travel and leisure sector: the context of Russo–Ukrainian war = El impacto de los factores macroecono micos en el sector europeo de viajes y ocio: el contexto de la guerra ruso-ucraniana. Tourism Review. ISSN 1660-5373. 80.3, p. 513-528 | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1108/TR-08-2023-0534 | pt_PT |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1660-5373 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1759-8451 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10198/31112 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | pt_PT |
| dc.peerreviewed | yes | pt_PT |
| dc.publisher | Emerald | pt_PT |
| dc.relation | Applied Management Research Unit | |
| dc.relation | Applied Management Research Unit | |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Russian–Ukraine war | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Macroeconomic variables | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Geopolitical risk | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Inflation | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Interest rate | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Oil and gas | pt_PT |
| dc.subject | Travel and leisure sector | pt_PT |
| dc.title | The impact of macroeconomic factors on the European travel and leisure sector: the context of Russo–Ukrainian war | pt_PT |
| dc.title.alternative | El impacto de los factores macroecono micos en el sector europeo de viajes y ocio: el contexto de la guerra ruso-ucraniana | pt_PT |
| dc.type | journal article | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| oaire.awardTitle | Applied Management Research Unit | |
| oaire.awardTitle | Applied Management Research Unit | |
| oaire.awardURI | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04752%2F2020/PT | |
| oaire.awardURI | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F04752%2F2020/PT | |
| oaire.citation.endPage | 528 | pt_PT |
| oaire.citation.issue | 2 | pt_PT |
| oaire.citation.startPage | 513 | pt_PT |
| oaire.citation.title | Tourism Review | pt_PT |
| oaire.citation.volume | 80 | pt_PT |
| oaire.fundingStream | 6817 - DCRRNI ID | |
| oaire.fundingStream | 6817 - DCRRNI ID | |
| person.familyName | Vieira | |
| person.givenName | Elvira Pacheco | |
| person.identifier | A-5395-2010 | |
| person.identifier.ciencia-id | B913-0565-0908 | |
| person.identifier.orcid | 0000-0002-9296-3896 | |
| person.identifier.scopus-author-id | 180827-009829 | |
| project.funder.identifier | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 | |
| project.funder.identifier | http://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871 | |
| project.funder.name | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | |
| project.funder.name | Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | |
| rcaap.rights | restrictedAccess | pt_PT |
| rcaap.type | article | pt_PT |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | 20a7a09b-08b2-4e43-8195-d3eb94852f13 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | 20a7a09b-08b2-4e43-8195-d3eb94852f13 | |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication | db81737a-fcb8-4cd9-b025-f7465790c52b | |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication | fddb1487-0635-4996-8ea1-acac8476ca6b | |
| relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | db81737a-fcb8-4cd9-b025-f7465790c52b |