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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Este estudo de caso teve como principal objetivo simular e comparar quantitativamente três diferentes metodologias de gerenciamento de estoques aplicadas ao estoque de matériasprimas alimentares da empresa “Pão de Gimonde”. Neste sentido, o comportamento da demanda dos itens de estoque foi analisado e, utilizando o critério de Classificação ABC, 14 itens principais foram priorizados para serem estudados. Utilizando quatro diferentes métodos de previsão de demanda, denominados Holt- Winters aditivo e multiplicativo e Decomposição Clássica aditiva e multiplicativa, a demanda dos itens priorizados foi estimada até o final do ano de 2023. Os resultados dos quatro modelos foram comparados e obteve-se resultados satisfatórios, uma vez que, para todos os artigos selecionados, pelo menos um modelo teve o Coeficiente U de Theil inferior a 1.
Com os resultados de previsão de demanda, foram estimados os custos e parâmetros de estoques para o ano de 2023, de acordo com três metodologias, denominadas, Modelo do Ponto de Pedido (R,Q), Sistema dos Mínimos e Máximos (Mín-Máx) e Modelo de
Revisão Periódica. Tais parâmetros e custos foram comparados entre as políticas de estoque analisadas e também com os custos e parâmetros de estoques passados, estimados para o ano de 2021, como base comparativa. Como resultados, observou-se uma melhora significativa em relação a níveis de serviço e redução de custos comparando as três metodologias de gerenciamento com os custos e parâmetros de estoques passados, do ano de 2021. Aplicando os modelos de Revisão Contínua, ou seja, Modelo (R,Q) e Sistema Mín-Máx, a redução de custos de estoques totais estimada foi de 56,1%. Já aplicando o modelo de Revisão Periódica, a redução de custos estimada foi de 35,5%.
Comparando as metodologias entre si, assim como esperado, o modelo de Revisão Periódica apresentou custos de estoque mais elevados, devido ao maior volume de estoques de segurança necessário. Porém, para definir qual método é o ideal para a empresa, devesse também levar em consideração os custos operacionais. Desta forma, o presente estudo enuncia os bons resultados causados pela aplicação destes métodos e serve como um ponto de partida para a escolha do modelo ideal.
This case study aimed to simulate and quantitatively compare three different inventory management methodologies applied to the food raw materials inventories of the company “Pão de Gimonde”. Therefore the demand behaviour of the inventory items was analysed and, using the Classification ABC criteria, 14 main items were prioritised to be studied. Using four different demand forecasting methods, named Holt-Winter additive and multiplicative and Classical Decomposition additive and multiplicative, the demand of the prioritised items was estimated until the end of the year 2023. The results of the four models were compared and satisfactory results were obtained, since for all items, at least one model had a U-Theil Coefficient less than 1. From the demand forecasting results, inventory costs and parameters were estimated for the year 2023, according to three methodologies, named Reorder Point Model (R,Q), Mín-Máx System and Periodic Review Model. These costs and parameters were compared among the analysed inventory policies and also between past costs and parameters, estimated for the year 2021, as a comparative basis. As results, significant improvements were observed regarding service levels and cost reduction, comparing the three management methodologies and the past inventory costs and parameters, of the year 2021. Applying the Continuous Review models, in other words, (R,Q) Model and Mín-Máx System, the estimated inventory cost reduction was 56,1%. And, applying the Periodic Review Model, the estimated inventory cost reduction was 35,5%. Comparing the methodologies with each other, as expected, the Periodic Review Model presented higher inventory costs than the Continuous Review models, due to the higher safety stocks needed. However, in order to define the best method for the company, it is also necessary to consider the operating costs. Therefore, this case study emphasised the improvements caused by the application of the inventory management policies and is a starting point for the company to decide what method fits better.
This case study aimed to simulate and quantitatively compare three different inventory management methodologies applied to the food raw materials inventories of the company “Pão de Gimonde”. Therefore the demand behaviour of the inventory items was analysed and, using the Classification ABC criteria, 14 main items were prioritised to be studied. Using four different demand forecasting methods, named Holt-Winter additive and multiplicative and Classical Decomposition additive and multiplicative, the demand of the prioritised items was estimated until the end of the year 2023. The results of the four models were compared and satisfactory results were obtained, since for all items, at least one model had a U-Theil Coefficient less than 1. From the demand forecasting results, inventory costs and parameters were estimated for the year 2023, according to three methodologies, named Reorder Point Model (R,Q), Mín-Máx System and Periodic Review Model. These costs and parameters were compared among the analysed inventory policies and also between past costs and parameters, estimated for the year 2021, as a comparative basis. As results, significant improvements were observed regarding service levels and cost reduction, comparing the three management methodologies and the past inventory costs and parameters, of the year 2021. Applying the Continuous Review models, in other words, (R,Q) Model and Mín-Máx System, the estimated inventory cost reduction was 56,1%. And, applying the Periodic Review Model, the estimated inventory cost reduction was 35,5%. Comparing the methodologies with each other, as expected, the Periodic Review Model presented higher inventory costs than the Continuous Review models, due to the higher safety stocks needed. However, in order to define the best method for the company, it is also necessary to consider the operating costs. Therefore, this case study emphasised the improvements caused by the application of the inventory management policies and is a starting point for the company to decide what method fits better.
Description
Mestrado de dupla diplomação com o Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica de Minas Gerais – CEFET-MG
Keywords
Previsão de demanda Gerenciamento de estoques Padaria Caso de estudo