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Application of Benford’s Law to the tourism demand: the case of the Island of Sal, Cape Verde

2021Conference paper Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorNeves, Gilberto A.
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Catarina S.
dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Paula Odete
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-05T14:22:37Z
dc.date.available2022-04-05T14:22:37Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractThis article presents Benford’s Law applied for the first time to the tourism context, focusing on tourism demand. This law states that in sets of random numbers of natural events, the probability of the first digit of these numbers being 1 is approximately 30%, of being 2 is 18%, and so on until reaching 9 with 4.6% probability. In this context, the objective is to verify if Benford’s Law applies to the monthly numbers of overnight stays registered in the accommodation establishments of the Island of Sal, in the period between 2000 and 2018, to test the data reliability. This research focus on data provided by the National Statistics Institute of Cape Verde. The Chi-Square test (χ2) was used to assess the discrepancy between the observed and expected relative frequencies. The results show that the observed χ2 value is higher than the χ2 critical value (5% significance level), meaning that the number of monthly overnight stays recorded in accommodation establishments on the Island of Sal does not follow Benford’s Law. However, certain possible data disturbances must be considered, such as the occurrence of specific events during that time period. Other factors that could influence the results are the size of the data set and a sub notification in the data collection process. These circumstances may be the cause of the non-adaptation of the number of overnight stays to Benford’s Law. The implication of this fact on the estimation of tourism demand is crucial for the development and optimization of prediction models.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors are grateful to the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, Portugal) for financial support by national funds FCT/MCTES to UNIAG, under Project no. UIDB/04752/2020 and to INEGI under LAETA project UIDB/5022/2020. G. Neves would also like to acknowledge the Sal City Council (Câmara Municipal do Sal) for their support of the PhD Scholarship.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationNeves, Gilberto A.; Nunes, Catarina S.; Fernandes, Paula O. (2021). Application of Benford’s Law to the tourism demand: the case of the Island of Sal, Cape Verde. In Pereira, Ana I.; Fernandes, Florbela P.; Coelho, João Paulo; Teixeira, João Paulo; Pacheco, Maria F.; Alves, Paulo; Lopes, Rui Pedro (Eds.) Optimization, learning algorithms and applications: first International Conference, OL2A 2021. Cham: Springer Nature. p. 587-598. ISBN 978-3-030-91884-2pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/978-3-030-91885-9_43pt_PT
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-030-91884-2
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/25359
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherSpringer Naturept_PT
dc.relationUIDB/5022/2020pt_PT
dc.relationApplied Management Research Unit
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectBenford’s Lawpt_PT
dc.subjectData irregularitiespt_PT
dc.subjectOvernight stayspt_PT
dc.subjectIsland of Salpt_PT
dc.titleApplication of Benford’s Law to the tourism demand: the case of the Island of Sal, Cape Verdept_PT
dc.typeconference paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleApplied Management Research Unit
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04752%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.conferencePlaceBragançapt_PT
oaire.citation.endPage598pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage587pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleOptimization, learning algorithms and applications: first International Conference, OL2A 2021pt_PT
oaire.citation.volume1488pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameFernandes
person.givenNamePaula Odete
person.identifierN-3804-2013
person.identifier.ciencia-id991D-9D1E-D67D
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8714-4901
person.identifier.scopus-author-id35200741800
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typeconferenceObjectpt_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2269147c-2b53-4d1c-bc1b-f1367d197262
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2269147c-2b53-4d1c-bc1b-f1367d197262
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relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscoverydb81737a-fcb8-4cd9-b025-f7465790c52b

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