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Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal

2024Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorPedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan
dc.contributor.authorDias, Luís Filipe
dc.contributor.authorKok, Kasper
dc.contributor.authorVuuren, Detlef van
dc.contributor.authorSoares, Pedro M.M.
dc.contributor.authorSantos, Filipe Duarte
dc.contributor.authorAzevedo, João
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-24T10:27:39Z
dc.date.available2024-05-24T10:27:39Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractThe Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming hinges on forest carbon sequestration as a key in several national strategies. However, Portugal's rising forest fire occurrences threaten its ability to meet ambitious 2030 and 2050 carbon sequestration targets. Considering fire and forest trends, this study aims to quantify whether Portugal can reach its carbon sequestration ambitions as stated in its 2030 and 2050 targets. We tested three national forest scenario extensions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) based on a dynamic model, simulating forest area and carbon sequestration related to future fire risk and policies of fire management, forest management, restoration of burnt areas, and climate change adaptation. The model projects a rapidly decreasing forest area under existing Portuguese policies (PT-SSP3), a slow decline under moderate policy improvements (PT-SSP2), and an almost stable forest area under long-term sustainable policy developments (PT-SSP1). In PT-SSP3, carbon sequestration will be reduced to 60% by 2050 compared to 2015, while it declines to about 85% and 90% under PT-SSP2 and PT-SSP1, respectively. It is still plausible to reach Portugal's 2030 sequestration obligations under the EU's Paris Agreement target under all three scenarios, while the Portuguese GHG neutrality target is not reached in the presented scenarios. Our four introduced policy areas (increasing focus on fire and forest management, forest restoration, and climate change adaptation of forest stands) must be supplemented by other policy strategies, such as reforestation.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipJ. Pedersen, L. F. Dias, P. M. M. Soares, and F.D. Santos would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the EEA-Financial Mechanism 2014-2021 and the Portuguese Environment Agency through Pre-defined Project-2 National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI (PDP-2), by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) - UIDB/00329/2020 (https:// doi. org/ 10. 54499/ UIDB/00329/ 2020), UIDB/50019/2020 (https:// doi. org/ 10.54499/ UIDB/50019/ 2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https:// doi. org/ 10. 54499/ UIDP/50019/ 2020), and LA/P/0068/2020 (https:// doi. org/ 10. 54499/ LA/P/0068/ 2020). J. Azevedo would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) - CIMO, UIDB/00690/2020 (https:// doi. org/ 10. 54499/ UIDB/ 00690/ 2020), UIDP/00690/2020 (https:// doi. org/ 10. 54499/ UIDP/ 00690/ 2020), and SusTEC, LA/P/0007/2020 (https://doi.org/10. 54499/ LA/P/0007/2020).pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationPedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan; Dias, Luís Filipe; Kok, Kasper; Vuuren, Detlef van; Soares, Pedro M.M.; Santos, Filipe Duarte; Azevedo, João (2024). Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal. Regional Environmental Change. ISSN 1436-3798. 24:2, p. 1-17pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10113-024-02217-4pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn1436-378X
dc.identifier.issn1436-3798
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/29812
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherSpringerpt_PT
dc.relationCentre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes
dc.relationInstituto Dom Luiz
dc.relationInstituto Dom Luiz
dc.relationInstituto Dom Luiz
dc.relationMountain Research Center
dc.relationMountain Research Center
dc.relationAssociate Laboratory for Sustainability and Tecnology in Mountain Regions
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectClimate change targetspt_PT
dc.subjectForest policypt_PT
dc.subjectClimate-induced firespt_PT
dc.subjectCarbon sequestrationpt_PT
dc.subjectNational scenario extensionspt_PT
dc.subjectRCP-SPA-SSP scenario frameworkpt_PT
dc.titleIncreased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugalpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleCentre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes
oaire.awardTitleInstituto Dom Luiz
oaire.awardTitleInstituto Dom Luiz
oaire.awardTitleInstituto Dom Luiz
oaire.awardTitleMountain Research Center
oaire.awardTitleMountain Research Center
oaire.awardTitleAssociate Laboratory for Sustainability and Tecnology in Mountain Regions
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00329%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F50019%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F50019%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0068%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00690%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F00690%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0007%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.endPage17pt_PT
oaire.citation.issue2pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleRegional Environmental Changept_PT
oaire.citation.volume24pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
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person.familyNameAzevedo
person.givenNameJoão C.
person.identifier.ciencia-id3F1F-0829-5878
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3061-8261
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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