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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The main objective of this paper is to examine the effects of the Trade Pillar of the Association Agreement between Central America and the European Union (AACUE) on the Panamanian exports to the European Union (UE) by the means of Static Shift-Share versus Dynamic Shift-Share analyses. To achieve this objective, both Static and dynamic Shift-Share analysis methodology was applied to recent data on Panama-European Union trade allowing to compare the results obtained from the two analysis models, therefore contributing to a better understanding of the evolution of the exports from Panama to European Union countries, under the AACUE. In terms of static versus dynamic Shift-Share analyses it is possible to observe that the results obtained in each analysis were approximate, apart some exceptions. However, dynamic analysis eliminates errors presented by the static analysis. Thus, the results of the dynamic analysis can be considered more comprehensive and robust. Overall, according to the dynamic Shift Share analysis employed, it is observed that Panama's exports to the European Union were affected by decreases to countries such as: Germany, Belgium, Spain, Greece, Italy, Poland and Sweden. Concurrently, decreases on the exports of the following products were recorded as well: other fresh and frozen vegetables, fresh fruits.
Description
Keywords
International trade Shift-share AACUE
Citation
Morales Mejia, Marian; Veloso, Cláudia M.; Duarte, António J.S.T.; Ribeiro, Humberto (2018). Static versus dynamic shift-share analysis applied to the panamanian exports to the UE following the aacue commercial agreement. In 35th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development – Sustainability from an Economic and Social Perspective. Lisboa