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Deterministic and stochastic simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic with the SEIR model

2021Conference object Open access
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dc.contributor.authorBalsa, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorGuarda, Teresa
dc.contributor.authorLopes, Isabel Maria
dc.contributor.authorRufino, José
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-15T10:21:11Z
dc.date.available2021-10-15T10:21:11Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractThis work regards the simulation of the spread of the COVID-19 disease in a community by applying the deterministic and stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic models. The developed computational method for the stochastic variant allows to realistically simulate the spread of COVID-19 in a medium-sized community and to study the effect of preventive measures such as quarantine and vaccination. The results of the simulations are compared with the deterministic version of the SEIR model. The comparison makes it possible to conclude that the epidemic outbreak can be prevented even though the basic reproduction number is greater than one.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipUNIAG, unidade de I&D financiada pela FCT, Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior. Projeto n°. UIDB/04752/2020.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationBalsa, Carlos; Guarda, Teresa; Lopes, Isabel Maria; Rufino, José (2021). Deterministic and stochastic simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic with the SEIR model. In 16th Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies, CISTI 2021. p. 1-6. ISBN 978-989-54659-1-0pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.23919/CISTI52073.2021.9476595pt_PT
dc.identifier.isbn978-989-54659-1-0
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/24033
dc.language.isoporpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.relationApplied Management Research Unit
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectSEIR modelpt_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19pt_PT
dc.subjectNumerical simulationspt_PT
dc.titleDeterministic and stochastic simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic with the SEIR modelpt_PT
dc.typeconference object
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleApplied Management Research Unit
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04752%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.endPage6pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.title16th Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies, CISTI 2021pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameBalsa
person.familyNameLopes
person.familyNameRufino
person.givenNameCarlos
person.givenNameIsabel Maria
person.givenNameJosé
person.identifier1721518
person.identifier.ciencia-idDE1E-2F7A-AAB1
person.identifier.ciencia-id8812-AE1C-A316
person.identifier.ciencia-idC414-F47F-6323
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2431-8665
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-5614-3516
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1344-8264
person.identifier.ridM-8735-2013
person.identifier.ridA-1728-2014
person.identifier.scopus-author-id23391719100
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55211017300
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55947199100
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typeconferenceObjectpt_PT
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