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Artificial neural networks versus Box Jenkins methodology in tourism demand analysis

dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Paula Odete
dc.contributor.authorTeixeira, João Paulo
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, João José
dc.contributor.authorAzevedo, Susana Garrido
dc.date.accessioned2009-02-06T12:32:27Z
dc.date.available2009-02-06T12:32:27Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.description.abstractSeveral empirical studies in the tourism area have been performed and published during the last decades. The researchers are unanimous upon considering that in the planning process, decisionmaking and control of the tourism sector, the forecast of the tourism demand assumes an important role. Nowadays, there is a great variety of methods for forecasting that have been developed and which can be applied in a set of situations presenting different characteristics and methodologies, going from simple approaches to more complex ones. In this context, the present study aims to explore and to evidence the usefulness of the Artificial Neural Networks methodology (ANN), in the analysis of the tourism demand, as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins methodology. ANN has been under attention in the area of business and economics since, in this field, it presents this methodology as a valid alternative to classical methods of forecasting allowing its application for problems in which the traditional ones would be difficult to use (Thawornwong & Enke, 2004). As referred by Hill et al. (1996) and Hansen et al. (1999), ANN shows 1 ability for improving time-series forecasts by mining additional information, diminishing their dimensionality, and reducing their complexity. In this way, for each methodology treatment, analysis and modeling of the tourism time-series: “Nights Spent in Hotel Accommodation per Month” registered between January 1987 and December 2006, was carried out since is one of the variables that better explains the effective tourism demand. The study was performed for the North and Center regions of Portugal. Considering the results, and according to the Criteria of MAPE for model evaluation in Lewis (1982), the ANN model presented an acceptable goodness of fit and good statistical properties and is, therefore, adequate for modelling and prediction of the reference time series, when compared to the results obtained by the methodology of Box-Jenkins.en
dc.event.date2008en
dc.event.locationLiverpool, Englanden
dc.event.title48th Congress of the European Regional Science Associationen
dc.event.typeConferênciaen
dc.identifier.citationFernandes, Paula O.; Teixeira, João Paulo; Ferreira, João José; Azevedo, Susana Garrido (2008). Artificial neural networks versus Box Jenkins methodology in tourism demand analysis. In 48th Congress of the European Regional Science Association. Liverpool, England.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/1038
dc.language.isoengen
dc.peerreviewedyesen
dc.publisherUniversity of Liverpoolen
dc.subjectArtificial neural networksen
dc.subjectBackpropagationen
dc.subjectBox-Jenkins methodologyen
dc.subjectTime series forecastingen
dc.subjectTourism demanden
dc.titleArtificial neural networks versus Box Jenkins methodology in tourism demand analysisen
dc.typeconference object
dspace.entity.typePublication
person.familyNameFernandes
person.familyNameTeixeira
person.givenNamePaula Odete
person.givenNameJoão Paulo
person.identifierN-3804-2013
person.identifier663194
person.identifier.ciencia-id991D-9D1E-D67D
person.identifier.ciencia-id4F15-B322-59B4
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8714-4901
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6679-5702
person.identifier.ridN-6576-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id35200741800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57069567500
rcaap.rightsopenAccessen
rcaap.typeconferenceObjecten
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2269147c-2b53-4d1c-bc1b-f1367d197262
relation.isAuthorOfPublication33f4af65-7ddf-46f0-8b44-a7470a8ba2bf
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2269147c-2b53-4d1c-bc1b-f1367d197262

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