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An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models

2020Conference paper Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorBalsa, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorLopes, Isabel Maria
dc.contributor.authorRufino, José
dc.contributor.authorGuarda, Teresa
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-17T10:43:55Z
dc.date.available2020-06-17T10:43:55Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractA small number of people infected with a contagious disease in a large community can lead to the rapid spread of the disease by many of the people in that community, leading to an epidemic. Mathematical models of epidemics allow estimating several impacts on the population, such as the total and maximum number of people infected, as well as the duration and the moment of greatest impact of the epidemic. This information is of great use for the definition of public health policies. This work is concerned with the simulation of the spread of infectious diseases in small to medium communities by applying the Monte Carlo method to a Susceptibles-Infectives-Recovered (SIR) stochastic epidemic model. To minimize the computational effort involved, a simple parallelization approach was adopted and deployed in a small HPC cluster. The simulations conducted show that an epidemic outbreak can occur even if the initial number of infected people is small, and that this probability decreases significantly with the vaccination of a population subset.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationBalsa, Carlos; Lopes, Isabel Maria; Rufino, José; Guarda, Teresa (2020). An exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic models. In 8th World Conference on Information Systems and Technologies, WorldCIST 2020. p. 726-736. ISBN 978-3-030-45688-7pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/978-3-030-45688-7_71pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/22092
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherSpringerpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectEpidemic modelspt_PT
dc.subjectInfectious diseasespt_PT
dc.subjectNumerical simulationspt_PT
dc.subjectParallel computingpt_PT
dc.subjectStochastic modelspt_PT
dc.titleAn exploratory study on the simulation of stochastic epidemic modelspt_PT
dc.typeconference paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.endPage736pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage726pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleTrends and innovations in informations sytems and technologiespt_PT
oaire.citation.volume1159 AISCpt_PT
person.familyNameBalsa
person.familyNameLopes
person.familyNameRufino
person.givenNameCarlos
person.givenNameIsabel Maria
person.givenNameJosé
person.identifier1721518
person.identifier.ciencia-idDE1E-2F7A-AAB1
person.identifier.ciencia-id8812-AE1C-A316
person.identifier.ciencia-idC414-F47F-6323
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2431-8665
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-5614-3516
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1344-8264
person.identifier.ridM-8735-2013
person.identifier.ridA-1728-2014
person.identifier.scopus-author-id23391719100
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55211017300
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55947199100
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typeconferenceObjectpt_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd0e5ccff-9696-4f4f-9567-8d698a6bf17d
relation.isAuthorOfPublication111716db-94a0-4c24-b739-330dc2ae79fc
relation.isAuthorOfPublication1e24d2ce-a354-442a-bef8-eebadd94b385
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery111716db-94a0-4c24-b739-330dc2ae79fc

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