The fire regulation ecosystem service in fire-prone landscapes: valuation and prediction under global change scenarios

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Fine-tuning the BFOLDS fire regime module to support the assessment of fire-related functions and services in a changing Mediterranean mountain landscape

Publication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Azevedo, João; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Alonso, Joaquim; Honrado, João P.

Fire simulation models are useful to advance fire research and improve landscape management. However, a better understanding of these tools is crucial to increase their reliability and expansion into research fields where their application remains limited (e.g., ecosystem services). We evaluated several components of the BFOLDS Fire Regime Module and then tested its ability to simulate fire regime attributes in a Mediterranean mountainous landscape. Based on model outputs, we assessed the landscape fire regulation capacity over time and its implications for supporting the climate regulation ecosystem service. We found that input data quality and the adjustment of fuel and fire behaviour parameters are crucial to accurately emulating key fire regime attributes. Besides, the high predictive capacity shown by BFOLDS-FRM allows to reliably inform the planning and sustainable management of fire-prone mountainous areas of the Mediterranean. Moreover, we identified and discussed modelling limitations and made recommendations to improve future model applications.

2022Journal article

Open access

Climate regulation ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation are enhanced differently by climate-and fire-smart landscape management

Publication . Campos, João C.; Rodrigues, Sara; Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Hermoso, Virgilio; Freitas, Teresa R.; Santos, João A.; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Azevedo, João; Honrado, João P.; Regos, Adrián

The implementation of climate-smart policies to enhance carbon sequestration and reduce emissions is being encouraged worldwide to fight climate change. Afforestation practices and rewilding initiatives are climate-smart examples suggested to tackle these issues. In contrast, fire-smart approaches, by stimulating traditional farmland activities or agroforestry practices, could also assist climate regulation while protecting biodiversity. However, there is scarce information concerning the potential impacts of these alternative land management strategies on climate regulation ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. As such, this work simulates future effects of different land management strategies in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain). Climate-smart (‘Afforestation’, ‘Rewilding’) and fire-smart (‘Farmland recovery’, ‘Agroforestry recovery’) scenarios were modelled over a period of 60 years (1990–2050), and their impacts on climate regulation services were evaluated. Species distribution models for 207 vertebrates were built and future gains/losses in climate-habitat suitability were quantified. Results suggest climate-smart policies as the best for climate regulation (0.98 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 of mean carbon sequestration increase and 6801.5 M€ of avoided economic losses in 2020–2050 under Afforestation scenarios), while providing the largest habitat gains for threatened species (around 50% for endangered and critically endangered species under Rewilding scenarios). Fire-smart scenarios also benefit carbon regulation services (0.82 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 of mean carbon sequestration increase and 3476.3 M€ of avoided economic losses in 2020–2050 under Agroforestry scenarios), benefiting the majority of open-habitat species. This study highlights the main challenges concerning management policies in European rural mountains, while informing decision-makers regarding landscape planning under global change.

2022Journal article

Open access

Climate- and fire-smart landscape scenarios call for redesigning protection regimes to achieve multiple management goals

Publication . Iglesias, Miguel Cánibe; Hermoso, Virgilio; Campos, João C.; Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Freitas, Teresa R.; Honrado, João P.; Santos, João A.; Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Regos, Adrián; Azevedo, João

Integrated management of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) in heterogeneous landscapes requires considering the potential trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The UNESCO's Biosphere Reserve zoning scheme is a suitable context to address these trade-offs by considering multiple management zones that aim to minimise conflicts between management objectives. Moreover, in Mediterranean ecosystems, management and planning also needs to consider drivers of landscape dynamics such as wildfires and traditional farming and forestry practices that have historically shaped landscapes and the biodiversity they host. In this study, we applied a conservation planning approach to prioritise the allocation of management zones under future landscape and climate scenarios. We tested different landscape management scenarios reflecting the outcomes of climate-smart and fire-smart policies. We projected the expected landscape dynamics and associated changes on the distribution of 207 vertebrate species, 4 ES and fire hazard under each scenario. We used Marxan with Zones to allocate three management zones, replicating the Biosphere Reserves zoning scheme (“Core area”, “Buffer zone” and “Transition area”) to address the various management objectives within the Biosphere Reserve. Our results show that to promote ES supply and biodiversity conservation, while also minimising fire hazard, the reserve will need to: i) Redefine its zoning, especially regarding Core Areas, which need a considerable expansion to help mitigate changes in biodiversity and accommodate ES supply under expected changes in climate and species distribution. ii) Revisit current management policies that will result in encroached landscapes prone to high intensity, uncontrollable wildfires with the potential to heavily damage ecosystems and compromise the supply of ES. Our results support that both climate- and fire-smart policies in the Meseta Ibérica can help develop multifunctional landscapes that help mitigate and adapt to climate change and ensure the best possible maintenance of biodiversity and ES supply under uncertain future climate conditions.

2022Journal article

Open access

Integrating multiple landscape management strategies to optimise conservation under climate and planning scenarios: a case study in the Iberian Peninsula

Publication . Iglesias, Miguel Cánibe; Hermoso, Virgilio; Azevedo, João C.; Campos, João C.; Salgado-Rojas, José; Sil, Ângelo; Regos, Adrián

Global change demands dynamic landscape management that integrates different strategies (e.g. promoting rewilding or traditional farming practices) to address the impact of climate and land use change. Planning for management strategies individually can lead to severe trade-offs between objectives, high opportunity costs and challenging implementation. Integrated management plans are needed to optimise the combination of multiple management strategies. We used the multi-action planning tool ‘Prioriactions’ to prioritise the spatial allocation of four management strategies (Afforestation, Rewilding, Farmland Return and Agroforestry Return) in the Meseta Ibérica transboundary Biosphere Reserve. We aimed to achieve targets for conservation of species suit- able area and ecosystem services supply while minimising fire hazard under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach under contrasting planning scenarios depicting different management priorities (Equally Weighted, Forest Maximising and Open Maximising). By integrating multiple management strategies, we could achieve management goals for biodiversity and ecosystem services under different planning scenarios, mini- mising trade-offs and deriving recommendations easier to uptake. The spatial allocation and extent of man- agement strategies varied according to climate change and planning scenarios. Afforestation was needed when putting more priority on forest species and carbon sequestration, while more Farmland Return was allocated when preserving open habitat species and agriculture. Fire hazard was higher in Rewilding areas and lower in Farmland Return and Agroforestry Return areas. The novelty of our approach lies in its capacity to combine different management strategies and provide an optimised spatial arrangement based on management features, making it suitable for planning in dynamic and complex environments where multiple pressures and objectives must be considered.

2025Journal article

Embargoed access