Browsing by Author "Zamotajlova, Daria"
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- Development of an effective method of tariff formation for rural areas: the case of Russian FederationPublication . Pereira, João Paulo; Zamotajlova, Daria; Popova, ElenaThe conducted researches have shown that the features of the housing and communal sector do not allow talking about the possibility of calculating the “optimal” tariff rate. The development of an effective method of tariff formation for rural areas is particularly acute. The use of traditional method to calculate the amount of tariffs for housing and communal services provided to the population and enterprises (called “cost plus” approach) consists in a simple summation of the cost price of a service with a premium that was set directly by a particular housing and communal enterprise within the maximum and minimum values. The authors found that none of the current pricing and tariffs’ setting methods fulfills the requirements for an effective and economically founded tariff policy in the housing and communal services sector. In this regard, the development of a new methodology that will ensure the receipt of compromise tariffs for housing and communal services is required. Compromise analysis, the main purpose of which is to obtain optimal prices, can be used as a basis of such methodology.
- Development of an effective method of tariff formation for rural areas: the case of Russian FederationPublication . Pereira, João Paulo; Zamotajlova, Daria; Popova, ElenaThe conducted researches have shown that the features of the housing and communal sector do not allow talking about the possibility of calculating the “optimal” tariff rate. Also in the current conditions in Russia, tariff methods that are successfully used abroad (for example, the method of reinvested capital) cannot be used. The correct approach to housing and communal tariff formation is the calculation of compromise tariffs, the size of which takes into account the interests of consumers of services, resource-supply organizations, public authorities and investors. Development of an effective method of tariff formation for rural areas is particularly acute. The correct approach to housing and communal tariff formation is the calculation of compromise tariffs, the size of which takes into account the interests of services’ consumers, resource-supply organizations, public authorities and investors. Compromise approach for tariffs’ formation can also become an effective instrument not only in Russia: it can be applied in countries where it is sufficient to calculate housing and communal services’ social demand and its budget coverage (e.g. because of the increasing number of migrants).
- Methods of nonlinear dynamics as a hybrid tool for predictive analysis and research of risk-extreme levelsPublication . Popova, Elena; Costa, Luís de Sousa; Kumratova, Alfira; Zamotajlova, DariaThe purpose of this research is to develop and adapt a complex of hybrid mathematical and instrumental methods of analysis and risk management through the prediction of natural time series with memory. The paper poses the problem of developing a constructive method for predictive analysis of time series within the current trend of using so-called “graphical tests” in the process of time series modeling using nonlinear dynamics methods. The main purpose of using graphical tests is to identify both stable and unstable quasiperiodic cycles (quasi-cycles). Modern computer technologies which allow to study in detail complex phenomena and processes were used as a toolkit for the implementation of nonlinear dynamics methods. Authors propose to use for the predictive analysis of time series a modified R=S-analysis algorithm, as well as phase analysis methods for constructing phase portraits in order to identify cycles of the studied time series and confirm the forecast. This approach differs from classical forecasting methods by implementing trends accounting and appears to the authors as a new tool for identifying the cyclical components of the considered time series. Using the proposed hybrid complex, the decision maker has more detailed information that cannot be obtained using classical statistics methods. In this paper, authors analyzed the time series of Kuban mountain river runoffs, revealed the impossibility of using the classical Hurst method for their predictive analysis and also proved the consistency of using the proposed hybrid toolkit to identify the cyclic components of the time series and predict it. The study acquires particular relevance in the light of the absence of any effective methods for predicting natural-economic time series, despite the proven need to study them and their risk-extreme levels.