Percorrer por autor "Yofukuji, Katia Yasuko"
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- Climate change affects the potential distribution of a Neotropical freshwater migratory fishPublication . Souza, Beatriz Cristinade Paula de; Possamai, Luana Caroliny; Yofukuji, Katia Yasuko; Lopes, Taise Miranda; Esser, Luiz Fernando; Ferreira, José Hilário Delconte; Ré, Reginaldo; Graça, Weferson Júnio da; Silva, Ana Francisca Gomes da; Ozório, Jefferson Matheus Barros; Bailly, Dayani; Batista-Silva, Valéria FláviaClimate change represents an increasing threat to freshwater ecosystems. In this scenario, this study investigated the impacts of these changes on the distribution of Megaleporinus obtusidens, a long-distance migratory species from the Paraná-Paraguay basin, and identified the main climate-environmental attributes associated with its occurrence. For this purpose, a combined projection approach with multiple algorithms was used to estimate environmental suitability and distribution of the species, as well as to identify climate refugia under different future scenarios. Thermal amplitude and river order were the attributes with the greatest contribution to the model. Although much of the basin currently provides favorable conditions for M. obtusidens, a reduction of 46.9% in climatically suitable areas is predicted by 2050 and 88.0% by 2090 under a pessimistic scenario. By the end of the century, climate refugia will be concentrated in the upper stretches of tributaries on the left bank of the upper Paraná River and along its main channel. The loss of suitable areas exceeds the gains, which are restricted to the upper Paraná River. These results highlight the vulnerability of M. obtusidens to climate change, emphasizing the need for conservation plans focused on protecting these refugia to ensure the species’ persistence in the basin.