A carregar...
Publicação
Climate change affects the potential distribution of a Neotropical freshwater migratory fish
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.01 MB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Climate change represents an increasing threat to freshwater ecosystems. In this scenario, this study investigated the impacts of these changes on the distribution of Megaleporinus obtusidens, a long-distance migratory species from the Paraná-Paraguay basin, and identified the main climate-environmental attributes associated with its occurrence. For this purpose, a combined projection approach with multiple algorithms was used to estimate environmental suitability and distribution of the species, as well as to identify climate refugia under different future scenarios. Thermal amplitude and river order were the attributes with the greatest contribution to the model. Although much of the basin currently provides favorable conditions for M. obtusidens, a reduction of 46.9% in climatically suitable areas is predicted by 2050 and 88.0% by 2090 under a pessimistic scenario. By the end of the century, climate refugia will be concentrated in the upper stretches of tributaries on the left bank of the upper Paraná River and along its main channel. The loss of suitable areas exceeds the gains, which are restricted to the upper Paraná River. These results highlight the vulnerability of M. obtusidens to climate change, emphasizing the need for conservation plans focused on protecting these refugia to ensure the species’ persistence in the basin.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Climate refugia Climate-environmental suitability Ecological niche modeling Freshwater ecosystems Paraná-Paraguay basin
Contexto Educativo
Citação
De Souza, Beatriz Cristinade Paula; Possamai, Luana Caroliny; Yofukuji, Katia Yasuko; Lopes, Taise Miranda; Esser, Luiz Fernando; Ferreira, José Hilário Delconte; Ré, Reginaldo; Da Graça, Weferson Júnio; Silva, Da Ana Francisca Gomes; Ozório, Jefferson Matheus Barros; Baily, Dayani; Batista-Silva, Valéria Flávia (2026). Climate change affects the potential distribution of a Neotropical freshwater migratory fish. Neotropical Ichthyology. ISSN 1982-0224. 24:1, p. 1-24
Editora
FapUNIFESP (SciELO)