Repository logo
 
Publication

Analysis and forecasting incidence, intensive care unit admissions, and projected mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: predictions for 4 weeks ahead

2021Journal article Open access
Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorCarvalho, Kathleen
dc.contributor.authorVicente, João Paulo
dc.contributor.authorJakovljevic, Mihajlo
dc.contributor.authorTeixeira, João Paulo
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-12T16:53:45Z
dc.date.available2022-01-12T16:53:45Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractThe use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were two proposed methodologies in making predictions 28 days ahead for the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. A case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel was also considered. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries’ size and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized (with at least one dose of the vaccine). As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology, targeting other possibilities of use for the method proposed. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1-to-28-day ahead forecast, which is lower than 30 cases, 0.6 deaths, and 2.5 ICU patients per million people.pt_PT
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work has been supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UIDB/05757/2020.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationCarvalho, Kathleen; Vicente, João Paulo; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Teixeira, João Paulo (2021). Analysis and forecasting incidence, intensive care unit admissions, and projected mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: predictions for 4 weeks ahead. Bioengineering. ISSN 2306-5354. 8:6, p. 1-19pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/bioengineering8060084pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn2306-5354
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/24604
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.relationResearch Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectTime series predictionpt_PT
dc.subjectANN forecastingpt_PT
dc.subjectNew coronaviruspt_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19 prediction casespt_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19 prediction ICUpt_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19 vaccinationpt_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19 in Europept_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19 in Israelpt_PT
dc.subjectCOVID-19 wearing of face maskpt_PT
dc.titleAnalysis and forecasting incidence, intensive care unit admissions, and projected mortality attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: predictions for 4 weeks aheadpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleResearch Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F05757%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.issue6pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage84pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleBioengineeringpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume8pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameCarvalho
person.familyNameTeixeira
person.givenNameKathleen
person.givenNameJoão Paulo
person.identifier663194
person.identifier.ciencia-idE61F-8971-5FA1
person.identifier.ciencia-id4F15-B322-59B4
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8623-7943
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6679-5702
person.identifier.ridN-6576-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57069567500
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication95e4ee5b-6232-45f4-a17d-465e70038188
relation.isAuthorOfPublication33f4af65-7ddf-46f0-8b44-a7470a8ba2bf
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery33f4af65-7ddf-46f0-8b44-a7470a8ba2bf
relation.isProjectOfPublication6e01ddc8-6a82-4131-bca6-84789fa234bd
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery6e01ddc8-6a82-4131-bca6-84789fa234bd

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
Analysis and forecasting.pdf
Size:
9.29 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download

Collections

ESTiG - Artigos em Revistas Indexados à WoS/Scopus