Logo do repositório
 
Publicação

Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union

2025Artigo científico Acesso aberto
Ver registo simples
datacite.subject.fosCiências Médicas::Outras Ciências Médicas
datacite.subject.sdg03:Saúde de Qualidade
datacite.subject.sdg02:Erradicar a Fome
datacite.subject.sdg15:Proteger a Vida Terrestre
dc.contributor.authorEllis, John
dc.contributor.authorLázaro, Elena
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Beatriz
dc.contributor.authorMagalhães, Tomás
dc.contributor.authorDuarte, Amílcar
dc.contributor.authorBenhadi-Marín, Jacinto
dc.contributor.authorPereira, José Alberto
dc.contributor.authorVicent, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorParnell, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorCunniffe, Nik J.
dc.date.accessioned2025-11-21T16:02:32Z
dc.date.available2025-11-21T16:02:32Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractSocietal Impact Statement Huánglóngbìng (HLB) is a bacterial disease of citrus that has significantly impacted Brazil and the United States, although citrus production in the Mediterranean Basin remains unaffected. By developing a mathematical model of spread in Spain, we tested surveillance and control strategies before any future HLB entry in the EU. We found while some citrus production might be maintained by roguing, this requires extensive surveillance and significant chemical control, perhaps also including testing of psyllids (which spread the pathogen) for bacterial DNA. Our work highlights the key importance of early detection (including asymptomatic infection) and vector control for HLB management. Summary • Huánglóngbìng (HLB; citrus greening) is the most damaging disease of citrus worldwide. While citrus production in the United States and Brazil have been affected for decades, HLB has not been reported in the European Union (EU). However, a HLB vector, the African citrus psyllid, is already in Portugal and Spain. In 2023, the major vector, the Asian citrus psyllid, was first reported in Cyprus. • We develop a landscape-scale, epidemiological model, accounting for heterogeneous citrus cultivation and vector dispersal, as well as climate and disease management. We use our model to predict HLB dynamics for an epidemic vectored by the African citrus psyllid in high-density citrus areas in Spain, assessing detection and control strategies. • Without disease management, we predict large areas infected within 10–20 years. Even with significant visual surveillance, any epidemic will be widespread on first detection, making eradication unlikely. Nevertheless, increased inspection and roguing following first detection, particularly if coupled with intensive insecticide use, could sustain some citriculture for a decade or more, albeit with reduced production. However, effective control may require chemical application rates and/or active substances no longer authorised in the EU. Strategies targeting asymptomatic infection will be more successful. Detection of bacteriliferous vectors—sometimes possible long before plants show symptoms—could reduce lags before disease management commences. If detection of HLB-positive vectors were followed by intensive insecticide sprays, this may greatly improve outcomes. • Our work highlights modelling as a key component of developing epidemiological preparedness for a pathogen invasion that is, at least somewhat, predictable in advance.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThe work was supported by Pre-HLB (Preventing HLB epidemics for ensuring citrus survival in Europe), grant 817526 from the European Union Horizon 2020 program. Additionally, T.M. acknowledges support from FCT for 2020.07798.BD (doi: 10.54499/2020.07798.BD), and T. M and A.D. jointly acknowledge support from MED for UIDB/05183/2020 (doi: 10.54499/UIDB/05183/2020) and from UIDP/05183/2020 (doi: 10.54499/UIDP/05183/2020) and from CHANGE for LA/P/0121/2020 (doi: 10.54499/LA/P/0121/2020). J.B.-M. and J.A.P. also jointly additionally acknowledge support from FCT/MCTES (PIDDAC) for CIMO, UIDB/00690/2020 (doi: 10.54499/UIDB/00690/2020), UIDP/00690/2020 (doi: 10.54499/UIDP/00690/2020) and SusTEC, LA/P/0007/2020 (doi: 10.54499/LA/P/0007/2020).
dc.identifier.citationEllis, J.; Lázaro E.; Duarte, B.; Magalhães, T.; Duarte, A.; Benhadi-Marín, J.; Pereira, J. A.; Vicent, A.; Pamnell, S.; Cunniffe, N. J. (2025). Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Union. Plants, People, Planet. ISSN 2572-2611. 7:5, p. 1403-1423
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ppp3.10643
dc.identifier.eissn2572-2611
dc.identifier.issn2572-2611
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10198/35131
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherJohn Wiley
dc.relationUnderstanding host preference of Trioza erytreae Del Guercio by a multi-omics approach.
dc.relationMediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development
dc.relationMediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development
dc.relationCHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute
dc.relationMountain Research Center
dc.relationMountain Research Center
dc.relationAssociate Laboratory for Sustainability and Tecnology in Mountain Regions
dc.relationPREVENTING HLB EPIDEMICS FOR ENSURING CITRUS SURVIVAL IN EUROPE
dc.relation.ispartofPLANTS, PEOPLE, PLANET
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectCandidatus Liberibacter
dc.subjectCitrus greening
dc.subjectDiaphorina citri Kuwayama
dc.subjectEarly detection surveillance
dc.subjectHLB (huánglóngbìng)
dc.subjectPsyllid
dc.subjectStochastic epidemic model
dc.subjectTrioza erytreae Del Guercio (1918)
dc.titleDeveloping epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus huánglóngbìng in the European Unioneng
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleUnderstanding host preference of Trioza erytreae Del Guercio by a multi-omics approach.
oaire.awardTitleMediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development
oaire.awardTitleMediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development
oaire.awardTitleCHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute
oaire.awardTitleMountain Research Center
oaire.awardTitleMountain Research Center
oaire.awardTitleAssociate Laboratory for Sustainability and Tecnology in Mountain Regions
oaire.awardTitlePREVENTING HLB EPIDEMICS FOR ENSURING CITRUS SURVIVAL IN EUROPE
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/2020.07798.BD/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F05183%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F05183%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0121%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00690%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F00690%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/LA%2FP%2F0007%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/817526/EU
oaire.citation.endPage1423
oaire.citation.issue5
oaire.citation.startPage1403
oaire.citation.titlePlants, People, Planet
oaire.citation.volume7
oaire.fundingStreamOE
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameBenhadi-Marín
person.familyNamePereira
person.givenNameJacinto
person.givenNameJosé Alberto
person.identifier.ciencia-id8D12-5415-20E0
person.identifier.ciencia-id611F-80B2-A7C1
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9804-4145
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-2260-0600
person.identifier.ridL-6798-2014
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57204366348
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd522da29-d919-4bcf-840a-a3fac5070975
relation.isAuthorOfPublication7932162e-a2da-4913-b00d-17babbe51857
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryd522da29-d919-4bcf-840a-a3fac5070975
relation.isProjectOfPublication9fcdb589-e53f-46dd-9828-6aa74b810980
relation.isProjectOfPublicationc115bdec-3151-4229-8c32-f479d1de6092
relation.isProjectOfPublication711fec66-ac5b-49e1-8424-b454f6db04f8
relation.isProjectOfPublication5a890098-6ee4-4463-8f30-ad1f52f0072b
relation.isProjectOfPublication29718e93-4989-42bb-bcbc-4daff3870b25
relation.isProjectOfPublication0aac8939-28c2-46f4-ab6b-439dba7f9942
relation.isProjectOfPublication6255046e-bc79-4b82-8884-8b52074b4384
relation.isProjectOfPublicatione8428882-8159-4801-8b34-7ad7c3d33d65
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscovery9fcdb589-e53f-46dd-9828-6aa74b810980

Ficheiros

Principais
A mostrar 1 - 1 de 1
Miniatura
Nome:
Developing epidemiological_plant disease invasion Modelling.pdf
Tamanho:
4.32 MB
Formato:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Ver/Abrir
Licença
A mostrar 1 - 1 de 1
Miniatura indisponível
Nome:
license.txt
Tamanho:
1.75 KB
Formato:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Descrição:
Ver/Abrir

Coleções

CIMO - Artigos em Revistas Indexados à WoS/Scopus