Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change

Silva, Janine P.; Sousa, Ronaldo; Goncalves, Duarte Vasconcelos; Miranda, Rafael; Reis, Joaquim; Teixeira, Amílcar; Varandas, Simone; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Filipe, Ana Filipa

Publication

Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change

2023Journal article

dc.contributor.author	Silva, Janine P.
dc.contributor.author	Sousa, Ronaldo
dc.contributor.author	Goncalves, Duarte Vasconcelos
dc.contributor.author	Miranda, Rafael
dc.contributor.author	Reis, Joaquim
dc.contributor.author	Teixeira, Amílcar
dc.contributor.author	Varandas, Simone
dc.contributor.author	Lopes-Lima, Manuel
dc.contributor.author	Filipe, Ana Filipa
dc.date.accessioned	2020-04-17T10:24:00Z
dc.date.available	2020-04-17T10:24:00Z
dc.date.issued	2023
dc.description.abstract	Climate change is becoming the leading driver of biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region, particularly southwest-ern Europe, is already confronting the consequences of ongoing global warming. Unprecedented biodiversity declines have been recorded, particularly within freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater mussels contribute to essential ecosystem services but are among the most threatened faunal groups on Earth. Their poor conservation status is related to the de-pendence on fish hosts to complete the life cycle, which also makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict species distributions, but often disregard the poten-tial effect of biotic interactions. This study investigated the potential impact of future climate on the distribution of freshwater mussel species while considering their obligatory interaction with fish hosts. Specifically, ensemble models were used to forecast the current and future distribution of six mussel species in the Iberian Peninsula, including envi-ronmental conditions and the distribution of fish hosts as predictors. We found that climate change is expected to se-verely impact the future distribution of Iberian mussels. Species with narrow ranges, namely Margaritifera margaritifera and Unio tumidiformis, were predicted to have their suitable habitats nearly lost and could potentially be facing regional and global extinctions, respectively. Anodonta anatina, Potomida littoralis, and particularly Unio delphinus and Unio mancus, are expected to suffer distributional losses but may gain new suitable habitats. A shift in their distribution to new suitable areas is only possible if fish hosts are able to disperse while carrying larvae. We also found that includ-ing the distribution of fish hosts in the mussels' models avoided the underprediction of habitat loss under climate change. This study warns of the imminent loss of mussel species and populations and the urgent need of management actions to reverse current trends and mitigate irreversible damage to species and ecosystems in Mediterranean regions.	pt_PT
dc.description.version	info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion	pt_PT
dc.identifier.citation	Silva, Janine P.; Sousa, Ronaldo; Goncalves, Duarte Vasconcelos; Miranda, Rafael; Reis, Joaquim; Teixeira, Amílcar; Varandas, Simone; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Filipe, Ana Filipa (2023). Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change. Science of The Total Environment. eISSN 1879-1026. 883, p. 1-15	pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163689
dc.identifier.eissn	1879-1026
dc.identifier.issn	0048-9697
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10198/21708
dc.language.iso	eng	pt_PT
dc.peerreviewed	yes	pt_PT
dc.publisher	Elsevier
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/	pt_PT
dc.subject	Biodiversity conservation	pt_PT
dc.subject	Biotic interactions	pt_PT
dc.subject	Fish hosts	pt_PT
dc.subject	Habitat loss	pt_PT
dc.subject	Range shift	pt_PT
dc.subject	Species distribution models
dc.title	Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change	pt_PT
dc.type	journal article
dspace.entity.type	Publication
oaire.citation.title	Science of The Total Environment	pt_PT
person.familyName	Teixeira
person.givenName	Amilcar
person.identifier	2153193
person.identifier.ciencia-id	9510-3CF3-0393
person.identifier.orcid	0000-0001-5336-1174
person.identifier.scopus-author-id	7202385393
rcaap.rights	openAccess	pt_PT
rcaap.type	article	pt_PT
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	4f0753fd-4b4f-46f6-8e2f-20c7f835a32a
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery	4f0753fd-4b4f-46f6-8e2f-20c7f835a32a