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Mapeamento do carbono orgânico do solo numa bacia hidrográfica de montanha

Publication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Gonçalves, João; Honrado, João P.; Azevedo, João; Ramos, Alice; Fonseca, Felícia

Com o objectivo de modelar e representar cartograficamente a distribuição actual do carbono orgânico no solo na bacia superior do rio Sabor, (i) recolheram-se e processaram-se amostras em 120 unidades de amostragem distribuídas na área de forma otimizada; (ii) modelou-se estatisticamente, com base numa regressão linear múltipla, a relação do carbono solo com um conjunto de variáveis independentes potencialmente explicativas do teor de carbono no solo; e (iii) procedeu-se à representação espacial das estimativas de carbono no solo, pela aplicação do modelo estatístico em SIG, com base na distribuição espacial das variáveis independentes significativas. A altitude, as unidades-solo “Leptossolos úmbricos de xistos e rochas afins e Cambissolos úmbricos crómicos de depósitos de vertente em áreas de xistos ou rochas afins (Iux, Buxx2)” e “Leptossolos úmbricos de xistos e rochas afins e Leptossolos dístricos órticos de xistos e rochas afins (Iux, Idox)” bem como a classe de uso e ocupação do solo “Soutos” contribuíram de forma significativa para a explicação do carbono orgânico no solo. A cartografia obtida com base neste modelo permite observar os principais padrões espaciais do carbono no solo na bacia superior do rio Sabor bem como permite avaliar a área na perspectiva da fixação de carbono pelos ecossistemas e pela paisagem.

2016Conference object

Open access

Climate change impacts on water resources and reservoir management: uncertainty and adaptation for a mountain catchment in Northeast Portugal

Publication . Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Monteiro, António T.; Azevedo, João; Honrado, João P.; Nunes, João Pedro

Reservoirs often play an important role in mitigating water supply problems. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this challenge in the Alto Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. The study analysed whether or not the shortage of water supply can be effectively addressed through the construction of a new reservoir (two-reservoir system) by considering future climate projections. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Outputs from four General Circulation Models (GCM) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations. A general increase in temperature is expected in the future while the change in precipitation is more uncertain as per the differences among climatic models. In general, annual precipitation would slightly decrease while seasonal changes would be more significant, with more precipitation in winter and much less in spring and summer. SWAT simulations suggest that the existence of two-reservoir will better solve the water supply problems under current climate conditions compared to a single-reservoir system. However in the future, the reliability of this solution will decrease, especially due to the variability of projections from the different climatic models. The solution to water supply problems in this region, adopted taking only present-day climate into account, will likely be inefficient for water supply management under future climate conditions.

2017Journal article

Open access

Tradeoffs among provisioning and regulation ecosystem services in mountain areas in the north of Portugal affected by fast landscape change

Publication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Rodrigues, Ana Paula; Nunes, João Pedro; Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Honrado, João P.; Alonso, Joaquim; Marta-Pedroso, Cristina; Azevedo, João

Mountain areas in Portugal provide a diversity of essential ecosystem services, including many provisioning and regulating services. These areas have gone through fast and significant landscape change over the past decades mainly driven by depopulation and agriculture abandonment. To understand how these changes affect the provision of ecosystem services (ESs) in mountain areas in Portugal and to gain insight into how ESs can support management and planning in these changing landscapes, we conducted an assessment of a set of ecosystem services, specifically timber, firewood, mushrooms, freshwater supply, and agriculture crops production (provisioning services), and carbon storage and sequestration, fire regulation, and water regulation (regulating services) in a medium-sized watershed (Alto Sabor) in northern Portugal. The assessment of each ecosystem service included biophysical quantification and economical valuation, using surveys, published statistics, and modeling tools (e.g., InVEST and SWAT) in a spatially explicit manner and was supported by land use/land cover change data from 1990 and 2006. Additionally, scenarios for 2020 were created based on observed land use and land use cover change in the region during the latest decades, namely further expansion of forest stands (FOREST), further abandonment of agriculture (ABANDONMENT), and expansion of shurblands (SHRUBLANDS). Trade-off analysis was conducted in order to evaluate not just the possible combinations of outcomes of landscape structure but also the impact of current and future land use/land cover changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Over the 1990-2016 period the landscape of the Alto Sabor basin showed an increase in forest area (21%) and a decrease in agriculture land (14%) and shrublands (3%). The heterogeneity of the landscape increased slightly as indicated by a decrease in metrics such as patch size, distances among patches, and size of the largest patch in each land class, and an increase in number of patches, extension of edges, and diversity and evenness indices. Simultaneously to these changes in landscape structure, the value of agriculture production in the area decreased strongly in opposition to the remaining provisioning ESs that increased in value. From these, freshwater supply was the most valuable of all. Overall, the value of provisioning ESs increased over this period of time. Among regulating ES, carbon storage and sequestration were the most valuable services showing also a significant increment from 1990 to 2016. Scenarios ABANDONMENT and FOREST indicate continuous or moderate increases in the value of provisioning ESs in the area in opposition to the SHRUBLANDS scenario according to which this value tends to decrease in 2020. The same pattern was observed for the regulating services evaluated in this study. A graphical comparison of the value of pairs of ESs suggest the existence of ES frontiers in value corresponding to optimal solutions of ESs vales. However, the exact shape and location of these frontiers in the graphs cannot be yet exactly located. Plots of the total value of regulating ESs against the total value of provisioning ESs suggest that the total value of ESs in the watershed has not reached a maximum value which can be reached according the the landscape change trends defined for the FOREST and ABANDONMENT scenarios. Tradeoff analysis revealed therefore that for the mountain landscape in Portugal under consideration it is possible to find optimal or sub-optimal combinations of landscape conditions (represented by the landscape in 1990, 2006 and in the three scenarios for 2020) in terms of the value and type of ecosystem services evaluated. The results of this study are important because they can effectively support planning and management in this landscape either based on the optimization of the value of ESs or on the importance of particular ESs. This study can, therefore, contribute significantly to the multifunctionality of the Portuguese mountain landscapes. Further research is, however, required to test the effects of other drivers of change on ESs in the landscape, individually or collectively, and to develop tool for stakeholders to promote participative planning and management in mountains in Portugal.

2015Conference object

Open access

Trade-offs and synergies between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services in a mountain area in Portugal affected by landscape change

Publication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Rodrigues, Ana Paula; Carvalho-Santos, Cláudia; Nunes, João Pedro; Honrado, João P.; Alonso, Joaquim; Marta-Pedroso, Cristina; Azevedo, João

This study explored the effects of landscape change on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain area in northern Portugal, in particular the trade-offs and synergies between services in 2 categories: provisioning and regulating. Services were assessed for 1990 and 2006 and projected for 2020 under 3 scenarios, both biophysically and economically, based on modeling and published and unpublished statistics. We found that landscape changes in the 16-year period under study increased the total supply of ecosystem services, measured both biophysically and monetarily, but that agriculture production dropped dramatically. Both regulating and provisioning services increased in value, but only regulating services increased in biophysical units. Projections under 2 of our 3 scenarios indicated that both types of ecosystem services will continue to increase in both amount and monetary value and will function in synergy, whereas the third scenario predicted a decrease in services and trade-offs between the 2 categories. Because land use has a major impact on ecosystem service supply, an understanding of the changes and trade-offs described in this article can support planning and management, in particular in mountain areas and other regions with limited alternatives for income generation. Our findings suggest that regional development plans should include incentives to maximize regulating and provisioning ecosystem services.

2016Journal article

Open access

Assessment of fire hazard regulation ecosystem service in a mountain area in northeastern Portugal

Publication . Sil, Ângelo Filipe; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Marta-Pedroso, Cristina; Alonso, Joaquim; Honrado, João P.; Perera, Ajith H.; Azevedo, João

The fire hazard regulation ecosystem service (ES) is the capacity of ecosystems and landscapes to maintain the frequency and intensity of fire events. Assessing how ecosystems and landscapes regulate fire hazard is of utmost importance to avoid or mitigate negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts as well as to understand the benefits that human societies can obtain and their value. This study aimed to understand how landscape change affects fire behavior at the landscape level and to understand how these changes in fire impact human communities, i.e., what is the role of the landscape structure in the provision of the fire hazard regulation ES and what is the value of this service. This allows the identification of trends in present landscapes that can be used in future planning and management. The study was conducted in the Sabor River’s upper basin in northeastern Portugal. The assessment was based on fire behavior modeling in the study area under five landscape scenarios (1990, 2006 and three future alternative landscapes). Modeling was conducted with BFOLDS (Fire Regime Model, v2.0). Simulations ran under extreme weather conditions, from thirty ignition points randomly located. The valuation assessment was based in the potential effects of fire on timber, firewood and mushrooms production, based on the relationship between average burned area and the economic value of ES. Between 1990 and 2006 the simulated average burned area increased while the average fire intensity decreased over time. Regarding the three alternative scenarios, the forest expansion scenario showed, on average, larger and more intense fires when compared with the rural abandonment and the shrubland expansion scenarios, as well as with previous dates. The potential losses in ES in monetary units followed the trends observed for fire behavior. In spite of this, the forest expansion scenario shows the highest supply and value of ES.

2016Conference object

Open access