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- Climate change potential effects on grapevine bioclimatic indices: a case study for the Portuguese Demarcated Douro Region (Portugal)Publication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Ribeiro, A.C.; Barreales, David; Castro, João Paulo; Andrade, João Verdial; Feliciano, Manuel; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Carlos, CristinaIn this work bioclimatic parameters and indices relevant to the grapevine are estimated for the years 2000 (past-recent), 2049 (medium-term future) and 2097 (long-term future), based on high resolution (1 km x 1 km) MPI-WRF RCP 8.5 climate simulations. The selected parameters and indices are mean temperature during the grapevine period (April to October), cumulative rainfall during the grapevine period, Winker index (IW), Huglin heliothermic index (IH), night cold index (IF) and dryness index (IS). In general, a significant increase in mean temperature during the grapevine period is observed, together with a significant decrease in precipitation. The present IW is associated with the production of high quality wines; the higher values predicted for the future represent intensive production of wines of intermediate quality. The IH show the passage of a growing region of the vine considered as hot-temperate to a warm category of higher helio-thermicity. At present, IF indicates very cool conditions (associated with quality wines), while in the future there is a tendency for temperate nights. Finally, IS indicates an increase in water stress considered already high in the present climate. An assessment on the statistical significance of climatic indices, their differences between the historical and the future scenarios and the potential impact on wine production is performed. Preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties. These results will provide evidence for future strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.
- Grapevine bioclimatic indices in relation to climate change: a case study in the Portuguese Douro Demarcated RegionPublication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Silveira, Carlos; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Ribeiro, A.C.; Andrade, João Verdial; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Barreales, David; Carlos, Cristina; Peixoto, CarlosClimate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine-growing regions of the world, in particular the Douro region, are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing season temperatures limited to 13-21ºC. This study focuses on the temporal variability of three grapevine bioclimatic indices, which are commonly used as part of the Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC) to classify the climate of wine producing regions worldwide. Dynamical downscaling of MPI-ESM-LR global data forced with RCP8.5 climatic scenario is performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986-2005) and future periods (2046-2065; 2081-2100). Results indicate significant shifts towards warmer and dryer conditions during the growing season and higher night temperatures during the grape ripening period. An assessment on the statistical significance of the differences between the recent-past and the future scenarios and the potential impact on wine production in the study area is performed. These results will provide evidence for future strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.
- Assessing the risk of tropospheric ozone phytotoxic effect on Southern European Mediterranean environments: a review with emphasis on vineyardsPublication . Blanco-Ward, Daniel; Miranda, Ana Isabel; Silveira, Carlos; Ascenso, Ana; Gama, Carla; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam; Borrego, Carlos S.; Ribeiro, A.C.; Feliciano, Manuel; Castro, João Paulo; Andrade, João Verdial; Barreales, David; Viceto, Carolina; Rocha, Alfredo; Carlos, CristinaTropospheric ozone in Southern Europe has an increasing tendency in association with a greater incidence of warm summers and heatwaves. As there is already much evidence of the negative effects that current ambient ozone has on vegetation, there is a need for consistent risk assessment methods. Ozone plant exposure-based parameters have been used extensively to support decision-making. However, these parameters have been also criticised, as they do not relate with the actual dose of ozone entering the plant. Moreover, in Mediterranean environments, they often overestimate the risk as thresholds are exceeded without corresponding evidence of damaging effects. To overcome these limitations, dose-based approaches were developed. These approaches have a stronger biological basis as they are based on estimates of the amount of ozone molecules that diffuse into the leaf cells through the stomata. However, they have also limitations, as detoxification processes or non-stomatal uptake are not often taken into consideration. This work presents a review regarding ambient ozone effects on vegetation and the indices used to assess phytotoxic risk in southern European Mediterranean plant communities and crops. Emphasis is given to the grapevine as three southern European countries (Spain, Italy and Portugal) are major wine producers concentrating more than 20% of the area under grapevines globally. These countries hold a long winemaking tradition associated to renowned denominations of origin (DOs). Therefore, there is concern regarding climate change as a potential threat to wine typicity in these areas, most of the work focusing on atmospheric variables, bioclimatic and climate change indices only. Results from the DOUROZONE project are presented with the aim to analyse the implications climate change can have in a significant Portuguese wine region such as the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) including ozone-related indices as a novelty among other more frequently used bioclimatic and climate change indices.