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- Is there a causal relationship between construction activity and the portuguese economy? An econometric empirical applicationPublication . Nunes, Alcina; Lopes, Jorge; Balsa, CarlosIt has long been recognised that the role of the construction industry in a country’s national economy goes beyond its share in national output. Existing paradigms on the structural change of the construction industry as national economy develops over time have been evolving from an approach that stresses the role of construction investment (indeed physical capital) as an engine of economic growth to one where the pattern of the evolution of the industry should follow that of the general economy. Using time–series data drawn from the United Nations national accounts databases, this study applies an econometric methodology to assess the validity of the underlying propositions in Portugal. With the availability of long and reliable time-series data and the development of econometric methodology related to the study of economic relationships between variables a new set of studies has emerged. Indeed, making use of the most recent innovations in the literature of unit root tests, this paper uses the Granger causality methodology to investigate the relationship between construction activity, measured by the construction value added, and the Portuguese aggregate economy measured by its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The issues of concern here are whether the construction sector and the aggregate economy are interdependent and whether construction activity contributes to economic growth and/or economic growth contributes to the dynamics of the construction industry activity. This kind of economic research has not been applied, until now, in Portugal. However, the results could be of particular importance for policy makers and economic agents since they might affect not only all macroeconomic policy but also the management activities at a microeconomic level. The results have shown that there is, in the short and medium-run, a uni-directional relationship between GDP and construction output in Portugal. On the other hand, the results do not show any significant effect of the construction growth on the GDP growth, at least in the short and medium run.
- É a imagem empresarial de Cabo Verde um espelho do seu potencial de desenvolvimento económico e social?Publication . Lopes, Jorge; Balsa, Carlos; Nunes, AlcinaO desenvolvimento sustentado de uma economia passa pela sua capacidade de atrair investimentos que, ao criarem empresas, geram emprego e riqueza. Recorrendo a indicadores internacionais de atractividade empresarial – que incluem indicadores de empreendedorismo, inovação, burocracia e corrupção e os tradicionais indicadores de crescimento e desenvolvimento económico – vai tentar perceber-se qual a relação entre a imagem empresarial que o mundo associa a Cabo Verde e o seu potencial de crescimento e desenvolvimento na última década. Conclui-se que a estabilidade política, reconhecida no contexto político e empresarial internacional, permite atrair investimentos estrangeiros mas o desenvolvimento da economia cabo-verdiana ressente-se de uma fraca performance económica e empresarial.
- É a imagem empresarial de Cabo Verde um espelho do seu potencial de desenvolvimento económico e social?Publication . Lopes, Jorge; Balsa, Carlos; Nunes, AlcinaO desenvolvimento sustentado de uma economia passa pela sua capacidade de atrair investimentos que, ao criarem empresas, geram emprego e riqueza. Recorrendo a indicadores internacionais de atractividade empresarial – que incluem indicadores de empreendedorismo, inovação, burocracia e corrupção e os tradicionais indicadores de crescimento e desenvolvimento económico – vai tentar perceber-se qual a relação entre a imagem empresarial que o mundo associa a Cabo Verde e o seu potencial de crescimento e desenvolvimento. Pretende-se, ainda, perceber como a imagem empresarial de Cabo Verde, no mundo, pode influenciar o sucesso das grandes opções estratégicas de desenvolvimento preconizadas para Cabo Verde e, em especial, a opção de promoção da capacidade empreendedora, da competitividade e do crescimento e do alargamento da actividade produtiva.
- Indicadores internacionais que reflectem o potencial de desenvolvimento económico e social de Cabo VerdePublication . Lopes, Jorge; Balsa, Carlos; Nunes, AlcinaNos últimos anos, Cabo Verde adoptou, como uma das suas grandes opções estratégicas de desenvolvimento, medidas de promoção da capacidade empreendedora, da competitividade e do crescimento da economia. O sucesso de tal estratégia depende da sua capacidade de atrair investimentos (essencialmente externos) que, ao criarem empresas, geram emprego e riqueza. Para avaliar a capacidade de atracção de investimento externo este trabalho apresenta e analisa rankings internacionais de atractividade empresarial – que incluem indicadores de qualidade institucional, liberdade política e civil, empreendedorismo, inovação, burocracia e corrupção e os tradicionais indicadores de crescimento e desenvolvimento económico – de forma a aferir sobre o potencial de desenvolvimento económico e social de Cabo Verde. A análise realizada é de médio e longo prazo que acompanha a economia de 2000 a 2010 e permite observar tendências. Os indicadores utilizados mostram que o país tem trilhado um sustentado e bem-sucedido caminho em termos de qualidade institucional e de liberdades políticas e civis. No entanto, dadas algumas fragilidades estruturais, em que se enfatiza o mercado de trabalho e a inexistência de algumas infra-estruturas, não consegue apresentar ainda aos investidores um ambiente empresarial consolidado e de qualidade.
- Analysis of the causal relation between construction activity and the gross domestic product of two neighbouring economies : Portugal and SpainPublication . Nunes, Alcina; Lopes, Jorge; Balsa, CarlosIt has long been recognised that the role of the construction industry in a country’s national economy goes beyond its share in national output. Using time–series data drawn from the United Nations national accounts databases, this study applies the econometric Granger causality methodology to investigate the relationship between construction activity, measured by the construction value added, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of two neighbouring economies – Portugal and Spain. In a comparison basis, the paper intends to identify the existence of a causal relation between the construction sector and each one of the aggregate economies. In particular, it tries to verify if the construction activity contributes to economic growth and/or economic growth contributes to the dynamics of the construction industry activity in these two countries. For both countries is find evidence that GDP growth leads the growth in the construction sector, in the short and medium-run. The opposite is not observed.
- Is there a causal relation between construction activity and the Portuguese economy? An econometric empirical applicationPublication . Nunes, Alcina; Lopes, Jorge; Balsa, CarlosIt has long been recognised that the role of the construction industry in a country’s national economy goes beyond its share in national output. Existing paradigms on the structural change of the construction industry as national economy develops over time have been evolving from an approach that stresses the role of construction investment (indeed physical capital) as an engine of economic growth to one where the pattern of the evolution of the industry should follow that of the general economy. Using time–series data drawn from the United Nations national accounts databases, this study applies an econometric methodology to assess the validity of the underlying propositions in a high-income economy - Portugal - over the long period of 38 years. With the availability of long and reliable time-series data and the development of econometric methodology related to the study of economic relationships between variables a new set of studies has emerged. Indeed, making use of the most recent innovations in the literature of unit root tests, this paper uses the Granger causality methodology to investigate the relationship between construction activity, measured by the construction value added, and the Portuguese aggregate economy measured by its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The issues of concern here are whether the construction sector and the aggregate economy are interdependent and whether construction activity contributes to economic growth and/or economic growth contributes to the dynamics of the construction industry activity. This kind of economic research has not been applied, until now, in Portugal. However, the results could be of particular importance for policy makers and economic agents since they might affect not only all macroeconomic policy but also the management activities at a microeconomic level. The results have shown that there is, in the short and medium-run, a uni-directional relationship between GDP and construction output in Portugal. On the other hand, the results do not show any significant effect of the construction growth on the GDP growth, at least in the short and medium run.
- The long-run relationship between the construction sector and the national economy in Cape VerdePublication . Lopes, Jorge; Nunes, Alcina; Balsa, CarlosThe relationship between a country’s level of activity in the construction industry and its stage of economic development is a complex one. Several studies over the last forty years, based mainly on cross sectional data, found a positive association between national income and several measures of the construction industry activity. Early studies were concerned with the role of the construction sector, as part of physical capital, in the promotion of economic growth and development. A dominant paradigm that later emerged is the ‘Bon curve’ or the inverted U-shaped pattern of development. More recent research, based on longitudinal analysis, has also pointed to the non-linear relationship between the share of construction in GDP and the level of income per capita. Using time-series data drawn from the United Nations, this study applies an econometric methodology to assess the validity of the underlying propositions in a low-middle income economy-Cape Verde – over the long period of 38 years. The findings are in line with the assumptions that in the upward growth trend in developing countries, the pattern of the construction industry tends to follow that of the general economy.