Browsing by Author "Pleskatsevich, Volha"
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- The impact of oil shocks on macroeconomic indicators: evidence from Belarus and PortugalPublication . Pleskatsevich, Volha; Moutinho, Nuno; Chaplianski, AndreiNowadays oil have a significant impact in our daily life and the fluctuations in oil price are extremely worrisome for both country producers and country consumers, and also significantly affect both. Due to the fact that not only a decrease, but also an increase in oil prices leads to significant macroeconomic changes, the contemporary situation on the world markets can lead to a lot of tangible consequences both at the global, regional and country levels. Here we want to understand the dependence of the main macroeconomic indicators of two non-producer’s countries on the world oil prices. Because Belarus and Portugal have different macroeconomic backgrounds, it is supposed that a change in oil prices will have different effects in the economy of each country. The aim of this study is to analyse the relationship between oil prices and main macroeconomic indicators of Belarus and Portugal. In this thesis we use vector autoregressive models to study the direction and strength of the relationship between these factors. we show that the change in oil prices has a tangible impact on the economic development of Portugal and Belarus. we have perceived a negative impact in macroeconomic indicators related with a rising in oil prices. In this study we find that oil price shocks have a deeper effect on the Portuguese economy than on the Belarusian economy. The oil prices have a negative impact on the macroeconomic indicators of both countries, but they are deeper in Portugal. On average, there is a more negative impact in short time, which weaken over the years.