Frigeri, Ary V.N.Bosse, Rubia M.Piloto, Paulo A.G.Minhoto, Manuel2026-03-302026-03-302025Frigeri, Ary V.N.; Bosse, Rubia M.; Piloto, Paulo A.G.; Minhoto, Manuel (2025). Sensitivity analysis of a railway temperature prediction model. In 8th International Conference on Integrity-Reliability-Failure. Porto. p. 351-352. ISBN:978-972-752-323-8. DOI: 10.24840/978-972-752-323-8978-972-752-323-8http://hdl.handle.net/10198/36375Rail temperature prediction plays a crucial role in ensuring railway safety, as extreme temperatures can cause local buckling and track instability. This study conducts a reliability- based sensitivity analysis of a previously developed prediction model using MATLAB and UQLab. Two analyses were performed: a global sensitivity analysis considering all parameters as random variables and a Data-Driven Sensitivity Analysis incorporating measured data for key variables to refine the model and enhance its practical applicability. Results indicate that uncertainties in convection and solar absorption are the most influential parameters affecting the response statistics of the rail temperature predictions. Future work will focus on refining parameter distributions and conducting Monte Carlo simulations to improve model accuracy and assess its reliability in unmeasured conditions.engRailwayprediction modeltemperaturesensitivity analysisconference paper10.24840/978-972-752-323-8