Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
No presente artigo pretende-se avaliar o desempenho e a competitividade do destino
turístico - Região Norte de Portugal, utilizando-se para tal o instrumento de análise proposto por
Faulkner. Numa segunda fase e para se quantificar os fluxos turísticos vai desenvolver-se um modelo
resultante da aplicação de Redes Neuronais Artificiais. A utilização desta metodologia centrou-se na
análise e modelação da série temporal de turismo: Dormidas Mensais na Região Norte de Portugal,
registadas no período de Janeiro de 1987 a Dezembro de 2004. O modelo obtido apresentou
qualidades estatísticas e de ajustamento aceitáveis evidenciando ser adequado para a modelação e previsão da série de referência.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance and the competitiveness of the tourism destination especially the northern region of Portugal, based on the Faulkner model. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is used to quantify the tourism demand. The methodology was focused in the analysis and modulation of the tourism time series: Monthly Nights Spent in Hotel Establishments in the North of Portugal, registered between January 1987 and December 2004. The developed model yielded acceptable goodness of fit and statistical properties and therefore it is adequate for the modulation and prediction of the reference time series.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance and the competitiveness of the tourism destination especially the northern region of Portugal, based on the Faulkner model. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is used to quantify the tourism demand. The methodology was focused in the analysis and modulation of the tourism time series: Monthly Nights Spent in Hotel Establishments in the North of Portugal, registered between January 1987 and December 2004. The developed model yielded acceptable goodness of fit and statistical properties and therefore it is adequate for the modulation and prediction of the reference time series.
Description
Keywords
Quotas de mercado Procura turística Redes neuronais artificiais Previsão Market share Tourism demand Artificial neural networks Forecasting
Citation
Fernandes, Paula O.; Teixeira, João Paulo (2007). Comportamento da procura turística: região Norte de Portugal. In IX Seminário Luso-Espanhol de Economia Empresarial. Covilhã, Portugal.